Carmarthen Town vs Llantwit Major: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 10Kick-off on October 2, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC)LHP Stadium, Caerfyrddin / Carmarthen, Dyfed
The Footlab model makes Carmarthen Town the favourite at 70%, against 16% for a draw and 14% for Llantwit Major. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Carmarthen Town vs Llantwit Major?
Carmarthen Town starts as the favourite with a 131-point Elo edge (1,614 vs 1,483).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Carmarthen Town have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Llantwit Major have 4, 1 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 2-4 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newport City(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(home) | 4-3 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Treowen Stars(away) | 1-4 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(away) | 1-5 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Baglan Dragons(home) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Afan Lido(away) | 0-5 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Swansea University(home) | 0-3 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Cambrian & Clydach(home) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Carmarthen Town win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Llantwit Major win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 2026 | Carmarthen Town 1-1 Llantwit Major | FAW Championship |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Llantwit Major 0-0 Carmarthen Town | FAW Championship |
| Jan 11, 2025 | Llantwit Major 0-2 Carmarthen Town | FAW Championship |
| Oct 25, 2024 | Carmarthen Town 0-1 Llantwit Major | FAW Championship |
| Apr 20, 2024 | Carmarthen Town 0-3 Llantwit Major | FAW Championship |
| Jul 29, 2023 | Llantwit Major 1-2 Carmarthen Town | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Carmarthen Town vs Llantwit Major on Jan 30, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Carmarthen Town score 2.5 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Llantwit Major score 1.5 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 77% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmarthen Town | 2.5 | 2.0 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Llantwit Major | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Carmarthen Town sit 4th in FAW Championship (9 points from 4 matches) and Llantwit Major sit 16th (0 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Carmarthen Town | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 9 |
| 16 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Carmarthen Town vs Llantwit Major?
- The Footlab model makes Carmarthen Town the favourite at 70%, against 16% for a draw and 14% for Llantwit Major.
- Where and when is Carmarthen Town vs Llantwit Major played?
- Carmarthen Town vs Llantwit Major is played on October 2, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC) at LHP Stadium, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 77% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.