llanelli AFC vs Baglan Dragons: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 10Kick-off on October 2, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC)Stebonheath Park, Llanelli, Carmarthenshire
The Footlab model makes llanelli AFC the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Baglan Dragons. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win llanelli AFC vs Baglan Dragons?
A very open match: only 85 Elo points separate llanelli AFC (1,557) and Baglan Dragons (1,472).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, llanelli AFC have 1 wins, 3 draws and 11 defeats; Baglan Dragons have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 2-4 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Swansea University(away) | 0-3 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(home) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Newport City(home) | 1-4 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Haverfordwest County AFC(away) | 0-6 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Newport City(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Llantwit Major(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Swansea University(home) | 0-3 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(away) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(home) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 3 llanelli AFC win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Baglan Dragons win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 30, 2024 | llanelli AFC 2-0 Baglan Dragons | FAW Championship |
| Aug 23, 2024 | Baglan Dragons 2-2 llanelli AFC | FAW Championship |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Baglan Dragons 1-2 llanelli AFC | FAW Championship |
| Sep 8, 2023 | llanelli AFC 2-1 Baglan Dragons | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: llanelli AFC vs Baglan Dragons on Dec 30, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
llanelli AFC score 0.7 and concede 2.7 goals per match over their last 15; Baglan Dragons score 0.5 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| llanelli AFC | 0.7 | 2.7 | 1 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Baglan Dragons | 0.5 | 2.1 | 4 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
llanelli AFC sit 15th in FAW Championship (1 points from 4 matches) and Baglan Dragons sit 5th (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 15 | llanelli AFC | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for llanelli AFC vs Baglan Dragons?
- The Footlab model makes llanelli AFC the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Baglan Dragons.
- Where and when is llanelli AFC vs Baglan Dragons played?
- llanelli AFC vs Baglan Dragons is played on October 2, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC) at Stebonheath Park, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Oct 2, 2026Caerau (Ely)vsAfan Lido
- Oct 3, 2026Pontypridd TownvsAberystwyth Town
- Oct 3, 2026Swansea UniversityvsCaerphilly Athletic
- Oct 3, 2026Cardiff DraconiansvsNewport City
- Oct 3, 2026Treowen StarsvsYnyshir Albions
- Oct 3, 2026Trethomas BluebirdsvsPontardawe Town