Caerphilly Athletic vs Caerau (Ely): prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 13Kick-off on October 30, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 58%, against 20% for a draw and 22% for Caerphilly Athletic. The most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Caerphilly Athletic vs Caerau (Ely)?
Caerau (Ely) starts as the favourite with a 179-point Elo edge (1,739 vs 1,560).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Caerphilly Athletic vs Caerau (Ely)
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Caerphilly Athletic
Not enough data to predict the Caerphilly Athletic lineup.
Caerau (Ely)
Not enough data to predict the Caerau (Ely) lineup.
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 08:41 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 14 matches in all competitions, Caerphilly Athletic have 4 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Caerau (Ely) have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Newport City(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Swansea University(away) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(home) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(away) | 2-2 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 2-0 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 11, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Caerphilly Athletic score 1.4 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 14; Caerau (Ely) score 2.1 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 73% probability of over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caerphilly Athletic | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2 | 10/14 | 11/14 |
| Caerau (Ely) | 2.1 | 1.8 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 14 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Caerphilly Athletic sit 11th in FAW Championship (11 points from 10 matches) and Caerau (Ely) sit 4th (19 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 18 | 19 |
| 11 | Caerphilly Athletic | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 11 |
A question about Caerphilly Athletic vs Caerau (Ely)?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Caerphilly Athletic vs Caerau (Ely)?
- The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 58%, against 20% for a draw and 22% for Caerphilly Athletic.
- Where and when is Caerphilly Athletic vs Caerau (Ely) played?
- Caerphilly Athletic vs Caerau (Ely) is played on October 30, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC), in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 73% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 30, 2026Pontypridd Townvsllanelli AFC
- Oct 31, 2026Llantwit MajorvsNewport City
- Oct 31, 2026Cardiff DraconiansvsAfan Lido
- Oct 31, 2026Treowen StarsvsBaglan Dragons
- Oct 31, 2026Pontardawe TownvsCarmarthen Town
- Oct 31, 2026Ynyshir AlbionsvsSwansea University
- Oct 31, 2026Aberystwyth TownvsTrethomas Bluebirds