Where and when is Caerphilly Athletic vs Caerau (Ely) played?

Caerphilly Athletic vs Caerau (Ely) is played on October 30, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC), in the FAW Championship.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Caerphilly Athletic vs Caerau (Ely): prediction and stats

FAW ChampionshipSouth - 13Kick-off on October 30, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC)

Caerphilly Athletic

Caerau (Ely)

The Footlab model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 49%, against 23% for a draw and 28% for Caerphilly Athletic. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Caerphilly Athletic vs Caerau (Ely)?

Caerau (Ely) starts as the favourite with a 149-point Elo edge (1,654 vs 1,506).

Caerphilly Athletic win28 %

Draw23 %

Caerau (Ely) win49 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 8 matches in all competitions, Caerphilly Athletic have 2 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Caerau (Ely) have 6, 5 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Caerphilly Athletic
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Ynyshir Albions(home)	2-1	FAW Championship
Aug 15, 2026	Treowen Stars(away)	0-3	FAW Championship
Aug 7, 2026	Cardiff Draconians(home)	0-0	FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Pontardawe Town(away)	0-3	FAW Championship
Sep 20, 2025	Caldicot Town(home)	1-3	Welsh Cup

Caerau (Ely)
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Swansea University(home)	1-5	FAW Championship
Aug 14, 2026	Trethomas Bluebirds(away)	4-2	FAW Championship
Aug 7, 2026	Ynyshir Albions(home)	1-1	FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Carmarthen Town(away)	3-4	FAW Championship
Jul 25, 2026	Barnstaple Town(home)	4-4	Friendlies Clubs

How many goals should we expect?

Caerphilly Athletic score 1.3 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 8; Caerau (Ely) score 2.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Caerphilly Athletic	1.3	2.0	1	5/8	6/8
Caerau (Ely)	2.1	1.5	6	8/15	8/15

Over the last 8 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Caerphilly Athletic sit 12th in FAW Championship (4 points from 4 matches) and Caerau (Ely) sit 11th (4 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
11	Caerau (Ely)	4	1	1	2	9	12	4
12	Caerphilly Athletic	4	1	1	2	2	7	4

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Caerphilly Athletic vs Caerau (Ely)?: The Footlab model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 49%, against 23% for a draw and 28% for Caerphilly Athletic.
Where and when is Caerphilly Athletic vs Caerau (Ely) played?: Caerphilly Athletic vs Caerau (Ely) is played on October 30, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC), in the FAW Championship.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.