Carlisle vs Harrogate Town: prediction and stats
National LeagueRegular Season - 15Kick-off on October 28, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Brunton Park, Carlisle, Cumbria
The Footlab AI model makes Carlisle the favourite at 58%, against 22% for a draw and 20% for Harrogate Town. The most likely score is 1-1. If Carlisle wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,899 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Carlisle vs Harrogate Town?
Carlisle starts as the favourite with a 107-point Elo edge (1,948 vs 1,842).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Carlisle vs Harrogate Town
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Carlisle
4-3-3- 7D. Ajiboye
- 10R. Linney
- 9G. Kelly
- 6M. Azeez
- 4H. Bunker
- 30T. Jenks
- 15B. Nicholson
- 17L. Duru
- 5M. Feeney
- 18J. Ellis
- 1A. Desbois
Harrogate Town
4-3-3- 23B. Dolaghan
- 9S. McCoulsky
- 18J. Muldoon
- 3E. Bristow
- 14M. Williams
- 11W. McGowan
- 24L. Cass
- 4A. Baptiste
- 16S. Dreyer
- 26G. Horton
- 34L. Hutchinson
Computed on October 20, 2026 at 11:46 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Carlisle have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Harrogate Town have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Tamworth(home) | 2-1 | FA Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Kidderminster Harriers(home) | 0-0 | National League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Aldershot Town(away) | 3-1 | National League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | AFC Fylde(away) | 2-0 | National League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Woking(home) | 2-5 | National League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | Bury(home) | 3-1 | FA Cup |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Bury(away) | 1-1 | FA Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Woking(away) | 1-0 | National League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | AFC Hornchurch(home) | 3-0 | National League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Hartlepool(away) | 1-0 | National League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Carlisle wins, 1 draw, 3 Harrogate Town wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2025 | Harrogate Town 0-2 Carlisle | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Harrogate Town 1-0 Carlisle | League Two |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Carlisle 1-1 Harrogate Town | League Two |
| Nov 14, 2023 | Carlisle 2-0 Harrogate Town | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 8, 2023 | Harrogate Town 1-0 Carlisle | League Cup |
| Feb 4, 2023 | Carlisle 0-1 Harrogate Town | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Harrogate Town vs Carlisle on Jul 26, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Carlisle score 1.9 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Harrogate Town score 2.2 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle | 1.9 | 1.4 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Harrogate Town | 2.2 | 1.3 | 4 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Carlisle sit 14th in National League (17 points from 13 matches) and Harrogate Town sit 2nd (28 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 17 | 28 |
| 14 | Carlisle | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 23 | 20 | 17 |
A question about Carlisle vs Harrogate Town?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Carlisle vs Harrogate Town?
- The Footlab AI model makes Carlisle the favourite at 58%, against 22% for a draw and 20% for Harrogate Town.
- Where and when is Carlisle vs Harrogate Town played?
- Carlisle vs Harrogate Town is played on October 28, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Brunton Park, in the National League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.