Carmarthen Town vs Pontardawe Town: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 19Kick-off on December 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)LHP Stadium, Caerfyrddin / Carmarthen, Dyfed
The Footlab model makes Carmarthen Town the favourite at 61%, against 20% for a draw and 19% for Pontardawe Town. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Carmarthen Town vs Pontardawe Town?
Carmarthen Town starts as the favourite with a 147-point Elo edge (1,594 vs 1,447).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Carmarthen Town have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Pontardawe Town have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 2-4 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newport City(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(home) | 4-3 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Treowen Stars(away) | 1-4 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Afan Lido(away) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Newport City(home) | 0-4 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(away) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 20, 2024 | Baglan Dragons(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Carmarthen Town win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Pontardawe Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2024 | Pontardawe Town 1-1 Carmarthen Town | FAW Championship |
| Dec 26, 2023 | Carmarthen Town 1-1 Pontardawe Town | FAW Championship |
| Jan 7, 2023 | Pontardawe Town 1-0 Carmarthen Town | FAW Championship |
| Oct 29, 2022 | Carmarthen Town 3-1 Pontardawe Town | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Pontardawe Town vs Carmarthen Town on Apr 6, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Carmarthen Town score 2.5 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Pontardawe Town score 1.3 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmarthen Town | 2.5 | 2.0 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Pontardawe Town | 1.3 | 2.1 | 3 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Carmarthen Town sit 4th in FAW Championship (9 points from 4 matches) and Pontardawe Town sit 13th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Carmarthen Town | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 9 |
| 13 | Pontardawe Town | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Carmarthen Town vs Pontardawe Town?
- The Footlab model makes Carmarthen Town the favourite at 61%, against 20% for a draw and 19% for Pontardawe Town.
- Where and when is Carmarthen Town vs Pontardawe Town played?
- Carmarthen Town vs Pontardawe Town is played on December 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at LHP Stadium, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 26, 2026llanelli AFCvsSwansea University
- Dec 26, 2026Llantwit MajorvsPontypridd Town
- Dec 26, 2026Afan LidovsBaglan Dragons
- Dec 26, 2026Caerau (Ely)vsCardiff Draconians
- Dec 26, 2026Ynyshir AlbionsvsNewport City
- Dec 26, 2026Treowen StarsvsAberystwyth Town
- Dec 27, 2026Caerphilly AthleticvsTrethomas Bluebirds