Where and when is Afan Lido vs Baglan Dragons played?

Afan Lido vs Baglan Dragons is played on December 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Princess Margaret Way, in the FAW Championship.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Afan Lido vs Baglan Dragons: prediction and stats

FAW ChampionshipSouth - 19Kick-off on December 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Princess Margaret Way, Port Talbot / Porth Talbot, Neath Port Talbot

Afan Lido

Baglan Dragons

The Footlab model makes Afan Lido the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Baglan Dragons. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Afan Lido vs Baglan Dragons?

A very open match: only 24 Elo points separate Afan Lido (1,498) and Baglan Dragons (1,474).

Afan Lido win52 %

Draw25 %

Baglan Dragons win23 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Afan Lido have 8 wins, 0 draws and 7 defeats; Baglan Dragons have 3, 3 and 9.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Afan Lido
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Pontardawe Town(home)	1-0	FAW Championship
Aug 14, 2026	Carmarthen Town(away)	1-3	FAW Championship
Aug 7, 2026	Llantwit Major(home)	5-0	FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Aberystwyth Town(home)	2-5	FAW Championship
Apr 18, 2026	Cardiff Draconians(away)	1-4	FAW Championship

Baglan Dragons
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Newport City(away)	1-0	FAW Championship
Aug 15, 2026	Llantwit Major(away)	1-0	FAW Championship
Aug 9, 2026	Swansea University(home)	0-3	FAW Championship
Jul 31, 2026	Trethomas Bluebirds(away)	0-0	FAW Championship
Apr 18, 2026	Trethomas Bluebirds(home)	1-1	FAW Championship

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Afan Lido win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Baglan Dragons win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Dec 26, 2025	Baglan Dragons 3-1 Afan Lido	FAW Championship
Oct 10, 2025	Afan Lido 1-1 Baglan Dragons	FAW Championship
Feb 8, 2025	Baglan Dragons 1-1 Afan Lido	FAW Championship
Oct 4, 2024	Afan Lido 0-3 Baglan Dragons	FAW Championship
Jan 12, 2024	Afan Lido 0-2 Baglan Dragons	FAW Championship
Oct 21, 2023	Baglan Dragons 0-1 Afan Lido	FAW Championship

Last archived meeting: Baglan Dragons vs Afan Lido on Dec 26, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Afan Lido score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Baglan Dragons score 0.5 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Afan Lido	1.7	1.7	5	7/15	9/15
Baglan Dragons	0.5	2.1	4	4/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Afan Lido sit 8th in FAW Championship (6 points from 4 matches) and Baglan Dragons sit 5th (7 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
5	Baglan Dragons	4	2	1	1	2	3	7
8	Afan Lido	4	2	0	2	9	8	6

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Afan Lido vs Baglan Dragons?: The Footlab model makes Afan Lido the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Baglan Dragons.
Where and when is Afan Lido vs Baglan Dragons played?: Afan Lido vs Baglan Dragons is played on December 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Princess Margaret Way, in the FAW Championship.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.