Afan Lido vs Baglan Dragons: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 19Kick-off on December 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Princess Margaret Way, Port Talbot / Porth Talbot, Neath Port Talbot
The Footlab AI model makes Afan Lido the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Baglan Dragons. The most likely score is 1-1. If Afan Lido wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,919 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Afan Lido vs Baglan Dragons?
A very open match: only 26 Elo points separate Afan Lido (1,533) and Baglan Dragons (1,559).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Afan Lido vs Baglan Dragons
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Afan Lido
Not enough data to predict the Afan Lido lineup.
Baglan Dragons
Not enough data to predict the Baglan Dragons lineup.
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 05:58 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Afan Lido have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Baglan Dragons have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Penybont(home) | 2-3 | Welsh Cup |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Swansea University(home) | 5-5 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(away) | 0-2 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Newport City(home) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Llantwit Fardre(away) | 3-1 | Welsh Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | llanelli AFC(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Afan Lido wins, 2 draws, 4 Baglan Dragons wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | Baglan Dragons 2-1 Afan Lido | FAW Championship |
| Dec 26, 2025 | Baglan Dragons 3-1 Afan Lido | FAW Championship |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Afan Lido 1-1 Baglan Dragons | FAW Championship |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Baglan Dragons 1-1 Afan Lido | FAW Championship |
| Oct 4, 2024 | Afan Lido 0-3 Baglan Dragons | FAW Championship |
| Jan 12, 2024 | Afan Lido 0-2 Baglan Dragons | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Baglan Dragons vs Afan Lido on Sep 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Afan Lido score 1.7 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Baglan Dragons score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afan Lido | 1.7 | 2.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Baglan Dragons | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Afan Lido sit 10th in FAW Championship (12 points from 11 matches) and Baglan Dragons sit 5th (17 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 17 |
| 10 | Afan Lido | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 22 | 12 |
A question about Afan Lido vs Baglan Dragons?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Afan Lido vs Baglan Dragons?
- The Footlab AI model makes Afan Lido the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Baglan Dragons.
- Where and when is Afan Lido vs Baglan Dragons played?
- Afan Lido vs Baglan Dragons is played on December 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Princess Margaret Way, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
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