Caerau (Ely) vs Cardiff Draconians: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 19Kick-off on December 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Cwrt-yr-Ala, Caerdydd
The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 61%, against 19% for a draw and 20% for Cardiff Draconians. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Caerau (Ely) vs Cardiff Draconians?
Caerau (Ely) starts as the favourite with a 142-point Elo edge (1,741 vs 1,599).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Caerau (Ely) vs Cardiff Draconians
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Caerau (Ely)
Not enough data to predict the Caerau (Ely) lineup.
Cardiff Draconians
Not enough data to predict the Cardiff Draconians lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 09:53 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Caerau (Ely) have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Cardiff Draconians have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 2-0 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 11, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(home) | 2-2 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Newport City(home) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(home) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Baglan Dragons(home) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 22, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 4-2 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 3 Caerau (Ely) wins, 0 draws, 0 Cardiff Draconians wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians 1-3 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
| Jan 2, 2026 | Caerau (Ely) 2-1 Cardiff Draconians | FAW Championship |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Cardiff Draconians 0-1 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Cardiff Draconians vs Caerau (Ely) on Sep 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Caerau (Ely) score 2.1 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Cardiff Draconians score 1.8 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 73% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caerau (Ely) | 2.1 | 1.8 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Cardiff Draconians | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Caerau (Ely) sit 4th in FAW Championship (19 points from 10 matches) and Cardiff Draconians sit 13th (9 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 18 | 19 |
| 13 | Cardiff Draconians | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 9 |
A question about Caerau (Ely) vs Cardiff Draconians?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Caerau (Ely) vs Cardiff Draconians?
- The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 61%, against 19% for a draw and 20% for Cardiff Draconians.
- Where and when is Caerau (Ely) vs Cardiff Draconians played?
- Caerau (Ely) vs Cardiff Draconians is played on December 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Cwrt-yr-Ala, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 73% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 26, 2026llanelli AFCvsSwansea University
- Dec 26, 2026Carmarthen TownvsPontardawe Town
- Dec 26, 2026Llantwit MajorvsPontypridd Town
- Dec 26, 2026Afan LidovsBaglan Dragons
- Dec 26, 2026Ynyshir AlbionsvsNewport City
- Dec 26, 2026Treowen StarsvsAberystwyth Town
- Dec 27, 2026Caerphilly AthleticvsTrethomas Bluebirds