Caerphilly Athletic vs Trethomas Bluebirds: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 19Kick-off on December 27, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Caerphilly Athletic the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for Trethomas Bluebirds. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Caerphilly Athletic vs Trethomas Bluebirds?
A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate Caerphilly Athletic (1,507) and Trethomas Bluebirds (1,512).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 8 matches in all competitions, Caerphilly Athletic have 2 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Trethomas Bluebirds have 2, 6 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions(home) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Treowen Stars(away) | 0-3 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(home) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Pontardawe Town(away) | 0-3 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Caldicot Town(home) | 1-3 | Welsh Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(away) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(home) | 2-4 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | llanelli AFC(away) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Baglan Dragons(home) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Barry Town(away) | 1-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Caerphilly Athletic score 1.3 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 8; Trethomas Bluebirds score 1.5 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caerphilly Athletic | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1 | 5/8 | 6/8 |
| Trethomas Bluebirds | 1.5 | 2.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 8 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Caerphilly Athletic sit 12th in FAW Championship (4 points from 4 matches) and Trethomas Bluebirds sit 14th (2 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Caerphilly Athletic | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 4 |
| 14 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Caerphilly Athletic vs Trethomas Bluebirds?
- The Footlab model makes Caerphilly Athletic the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for Trethomas Bluebirds.
- Where and when is Caerphilly Athletic vs Trethomas Bluebirds played?
- Caerphilly Athletic vs Trethomas Bluebirds is played on December 27, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC), in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.