Caerphilly Athletic vs Trethomas Bluebirds: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 19Kick-off on December 27, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Caerphilly Athletic the favourite at 41%, against 23% for a draw and 36% for Trethomas Bluebirds. The most likely score is 1-1. If Caerphilly Athletic wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,451 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Caerphilly Athletic vs Trethomas Bluebirds?
A very open match: only 40 Elo points separate Caerphilly Athletic (1,561) and Trethomas Bluebirds (1,602).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Caerphilly Athletic vs Trethomas Bluebirds
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Caerphilly Athletic
Not enough data to predict the Caerphilly Athletic lineup.
Trethomas Bluebirds
Not enough data to predict the Trethomas Bluebirds lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 12:18 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 14 matches in all competitions, Caerphilly Athletic have 4 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Trethomas Bluebirds have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Newport City(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Swansea University(away) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(home) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(away) | 2-2 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Treowen Stars(away) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Pontardawe Town(home) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions(away) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(home) | 2-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(away) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Caerphilly Athletic wins, 1 draw, 0 Trethomas Bluebirds wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds 2-2 Caerphilly Athletic | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Trethomas Bluebirds vs Caerphilly Athletic on Sep 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Caerphilly Athletic score 1.4 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 14; Trethomas Bluebirds score 2.1 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caerphilly Athletic | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2 | 10/14 | 11/14 |
| Trethomas Bluebirds | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1 | 14/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 14 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Caerphilly Athletic sit 11th in FAW Championship (11 points from 10 matches) and Trethomas Bluebirds sit 8th (13 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 18 | 13 |
| 11 | Caerphilly Athletic | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 11 |
A question about Caerphilly Athletic vs Trethomas Bluebirds?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Caerphilly Athletic vs Trethomas Bluebirds?
- The Footlab AI model makes Caerphilly Athletic the favourite at 41%, against 23% for a draw and 36% for Trethomas Bluebirds.
- Where and when is Caerphilly Athletic vs Trethomas Bluebirds played?
- Caerphilly Athletic vs Trethomas Bluebirds is played on December 27, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC), in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.