Celoricense vs Maria da Fonte: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group AGroup A - 15Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Celorico de Basto, Celorico de Basto
The Footlab AI model makes Celoricense the favourite at 43%, against 30% for a draw and 27% for Maria da Fonte. The most likely score is 1-1. If Celoricense wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,678 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Celoricense vs Maria da Fonte?
Celoricense starts as the favourite with a 128-point Elo edge (1,848 vs 1,720).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Celoricense vs Maria da Fonte
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Celoricense
4-3-3- 80Juninho
- 11J. Renteria
- LLucas
- 10D. Alves
- 7Didi
- 14Matchu
- 70J. Padi
- 13C. Mendes
- 17Diogo Miguel
- 18N. Pinto
- 99G. Machado
Maria da Fonte
4-3-3- 27João Antunes
- 10Henrique Vieira
- 70João Araújo
- 6Davide Caseiro
- AAndré Faria
- 8Dino Fernandes
- 21Cabreira
- 24Leandro Albano
- 83Wilson Oliveira
- 5Rafael Pereira
- 1Paulo Jorge
Computed on October 27, 2026 at 02:47 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Celoricense have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Maria da Fonte have 4, 1 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Os Limianos(away) | 2-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Vila Meã(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Bragança(away) | 1-6 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Chaves II(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Tirsense(home) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Bragança(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Maia Lidador(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Paredes(away) | 1-5 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | SC Braga B(home) | 0-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Brito(away) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 1 Celoricense win, 0 draws, 0 Maria da Fonte wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Maria da Fonte 0-1 Celoricense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
Last archived meeting: Maria da Fonte vs Celoricense on Aug 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Celoricense score 0.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Maria da Fonte score 0.8 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celoricense | 0.8 | 1.1 | 8 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Maria da Fonte | 0.8 | 2.1 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Celoricense sit 8th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A (8 points from 6 matches) and Maria da Fonte sit 13th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Celoricense | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 8 |
| 13 | Maria da Fonte | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 4 |
A question about Celoricense vs Maria da Fonte?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Celoricense vs Maria da Fonte?
- The Footlab AI model makes Celoricense the favourite at 43%, against 30% for a draw and 27% for Maria da Fonte.
- Where and when is Celoricense vs Maria da Fonte played?
- Celoricense vs Maria da Fonte is played on January 24, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Celorico de Basto, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.