Celoricense vs Maria da Fonte: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group AGroup A - 15Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Celorico de Basto, Celorico de Basto
The Footlab model makes Celoricense the favourite at 53%, against 29% for a draw and 18% for Maria da Fonte. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Celoricense vs Maria da Fonte?
Celoricense starts as the favourite with a 131-point Elo edge (1,848 vs 1,717).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Celoricense have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Maria da Fonte have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Maria da Fonte(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Montalegre(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Camacha(away) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Machico(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Brito(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Celoricense(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vinhais(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Fafe(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Brito(home) | 1-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Arouca(home) | 0-5 | Taça de Portugal |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Celoricense win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Maria da Fonte win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Maria da Fonte 0-1 Celoricense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
Last archived meeting: Maria da Fonte vs Celoricense on Aug 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Celoricense score 1.0 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Maria da Fonte score 0.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celoricense | 1.0 | 0.5 | 9 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
| Maria da Fonte | 0.9 | 1.7 | 3 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Celoricense sit 7th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A (4 points from 2 matches) and Maria da Fonte sit 9th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Celoricense | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Maria da Fonte | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Celoricense vs Maria da Fonte?
- The Footlab model makes Celoricense the favourite at 53%, against 29% for a draw and 18% for Maria da Fonte.
- Where and when is Celoricense vs Maria da Fonte played?
- Celoricense vs Maria da Fonte is played on January 24, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Celorico de Basto, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 34% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.