Santos Laguna vs Leon: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 17Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Corona, Torreón
The Footlab model makes Leon the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Santos Laguna. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Santos Laguna vs Leon?
Leon starts as the favourite with a 180-point Elo edge (1,895 vs 1,715).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Santos Laguna have 4 wins, 1 draws and 10 defeats; Leon have 11, 0 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Puebla(away) | 2-3 | Liga MX |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Guadalajara Chivas(home) | 0-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(away) | 2-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Chicago Fire(away) | 1-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 6, 2026 | New York City FC(away) | 0-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Monterrey(home) | 2-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Necaxa(away) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Inter Miami(away) | 3-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Orlando City SC(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Nashville SC(away) | 1-0 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Santos Laguna win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Leon win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2026 | Leon 2-1 Santos Laguna | Liga MX |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Santos Laguna 2-0 Leon | Liga MX |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Santos Laguna 2-1 Leon | Liga MX |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Leon 1-1 Santos Laguna | Liga MX |
| Jan 27, 2024 | Leon 3-2 Santos Laguna | Liga MX |
| Nov 27, 2023 | Leon 3-2 Santos Laguna | Liga MX |
Last archived meeting: Leon vs Santos Laguna on Feb 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Santos Laguna score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Leon score 2.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santos Laguna | 1.1 | 1.7 | 3 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Leon | 2.2 | 1.5 | 5 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Santos Laguna sit 17th in Liga MX (0 points from 3 matches) and Leon sit 14th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Leon | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| 14 | Leon | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Santos Laguna vs Leon?
- The Footlab model makes Leon the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Santos Laguna.
- Where and when is Santos Laguna vs Leon played?
- Santos Laguna vs Leon is played on November 22, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Corona, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.