Changwon City vs Yangpyeong: prediction and stats
K3 LeagueRegular Season - 23Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 05:00 AM (UTC)Changwon Civil Stadium, Changwon
The Footlab model makes Changwon City the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Yangpyeong. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Changwon City vs Yangpyeong?
A very open match: only 74 Elo points separate Changwon City (1,663) and Yangpyeong (1,589).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Changwon City have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Yangpyeong have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Busan Transportation(away) | 3-4 | K3 League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Jeonbuk Motors II(home) | 1-1 | K3 League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Gimhae City(home) | 1-5 | FA Cup |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Chuncheon(home) | 1-1 | K3 League |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Geumsan Insam(home) | 3-0 | FA Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gyeongju HNP(home) | 3-3 | K3 League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Busan Transportation(home) | 2-4 | K3 League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Hwaseong(away) | 3-4 | FA Cup |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Jeonbuk Motors II(home) | 5-2 | K3 League |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Ulsan FC(away) | 5-1 | FA Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Changwon City win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Yangpyeong win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Yangpyeong 1-0 Changwon City | K3 League |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Changwon City 1-0 Yangpyeong | K3 League |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Yangpyeong 0-0 Changwon City | K3 League |
| Aug 18, 2024 | Yangpyeong 1-5 Changwon City | K3 League |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Changwon City 2-0 Yangpyeong | K3 League |
| Jul 2, 2023 | Yangpyeong 2-0 Changwon City | K3 League |
Last archived meeting: Yangpyeong vs Changwon City on May 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Changwon City score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Yangpyeong score 1.6 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Changwon City | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Yangpyeong | 1.6 | 1.9 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Changwon City sit 6th in K3 League (26 points from 19 matches) and Yangpyeong sit 12th (17 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Changwon City | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 13 | 23 |
| 6 | Changwon City | 19 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 22 | 21 | 26 |
| 12 | Yangpyeong | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 25 | 36 | 17 |
| 13 | Yangpyeong | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 24 | 12 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Changwon City vs Yangpyeong?
- The Footlab model makes Changwon City the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Yangpyeong.
- Where and when is Changwon City vs Yangpyeong played?
- Changwon City vs Yangpyeong is played on October 3, 2026 at 05:00 AM (UTC) at Changwon Civil Stadium, in the K3 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.