Changwon City vs Pocheon: prediction and stats
K3 LeagueRegular Season - 24Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 05:00 AM (UTC)Changwon Civil Stadium, Changwon
The Footlab model makes Pocheon the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Changwon City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Changwon City vs Pocheon?
A very open match: only 90 Elo points separate Changwon City (1,663) and Pocheon (1,753).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Changwon City have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Pocheon have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Busan Transportation(away) | 3-4 | K3 League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Jeonbuk Motors II(home) | 1-1 | K3 League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Gimhae City(home) | 1-5 | FA Cup |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Chuncheon(home) | 1-1 | K3 League |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Geumsan Insam(home) | 3-0 | FA Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Mokpo City(home) | 2-0 | K3 League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Daejeon Korail(home) | 1-1 | K3 League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Seongnam FC(away) | 1-2 | FA Cup |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Dangjin Citizen(away) | 1-1 | K3 League |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Daejeon Korail(home) | 2-0 | FA Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Changwon City win(s), 4 draw(s), 2 Pocheon win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Pocheon 0-0 Changwon City | K3 League |
| Jul 20, 2025 | Changwon City 1-2 Pocheon | K3 League |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Pocheon 1-0 Changwon City | K3 League |
| Jul 27, 2024 | Changwon City 0-0 Pocheon | K3 League |
| Apr 13, 2024 | Pocheon 1-1 Changwon City | K3 League |
| Nov 11, 2023 | Changwon City 0-0 Pocheon | K3 League |
Last archived meeting: Pocheon vs Changwon City on May 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Changwon City score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Pocheon score 1.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Changwon City | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Pocheon | 1.9 | 0.9 | 6 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Changwon City sit 6th in K3 League (26 points from 19 matches) and Pocheon sit 2nd (39 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Pocheon | 19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 33 | 16 | 39 |
| 3 | Pocheon | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 12 | 28 |
| 5 | Changwon City | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 13 | 23 |
| 6 | Changwon City | 19 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 22 | 21 | 26 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Changwon City vs Pocheon?
- The Footlab model makes Pocheon the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Changwon City.
- Where and when is Changwon City vs Pocheon played?
- Changwon City vs Pocheon is played on October 10, 2026 at 05:00 AM (UTC) at Changwon Civil Stadium, in the K3 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.