Northampton vs Rochdale: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Sixfields Stadium, Northampton, East Midlands
The Footlab AI model makes Rochdale the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Northampton. The most likely score is 1-1. If Rochdale wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,451 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Northampton vs Rochdale?
Rochdale starts as the favourite with a 207-point Elo edge (1,909 vs 1,702).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Northampton vs Rochdale
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Northampton
4-4-2- 19O. Dale
- 9Matthew Warhurst
- 16J. Wormleighton
- 4J. O'Brien-Whitmarsh
- 8L. Evans
- 24C. Lemonheigh-Evans
- 6E. Moore
- 5J. Guthrie
- 22Joshua Alan Powell
- 44J. Donacien
- 1Z. Jeacock
Rochdale
4-2-3-1- 39D. Brown
- 17B. Adeeko
- 8H. Gilmour
- 21Kane Taylor
- 45G. Middleton
- 7C. Hayes
- 3Kaiden Wilson
- 2C. Tasker
- 44A. Flint
- 13O. Adebayo-Rowling
- 1Nils Ramming
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 09:50 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Northampton have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Rochdale have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | York(away) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Cambridge United(away) | 1-2 | EFL Trophy |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Rotherham(home) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Shrewsbury(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Newport County(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Tranmere(away) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Huddersfield(away) | 0-5 | EFL Trophy |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Swindon Town(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(away) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Liverpool U21(home) | 3-3 | EFL Trophy |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Northampton win, 3 draws, 2 Rochdale wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2023 | Rochdale 1-1 Northampton | League Two |
| Sep 17, 2022 | Northampton 3-0 Rochdale | League Two |
| Feb 26, 2022 | Rochdale 1-0 Northampton | League Two |
| Aug 21, 2021 | Northampton 1-3 Rochdale | League Two |
| Feb 23, 2021 | Northampton 0-0 Rochdale | League One |
| Nov 24, 2020 | Rochdale 1-1 Northampton | League One |
Last archived meeting: Rochdale vs Northampton on Feb 11, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Northampton score 0.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Rochdale score 1.2 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northampton | 0.8 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Rochdale | 1.2 | 1.8 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Northampton sit 23rd in League Two (7 points from 8 matches) and Rochdale sit 10th (14 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rochdale | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 14 |
| 23 | Northampton | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 7 |
A question about Northampton vs Rochdale?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Northampton vs Rochdale?
- The Footlab AI model makes Rochdale the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Northampton.
- Where and when is Northampton vs Rochdale played?
- Northampton vs Rochdale is played on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Sixfields Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.