Chesterfield vs Rochdale: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 37Kick-off on March 26, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)SMH Group Stadium, Chesterfield, Derbyshire
The Footlab model makes Rochdale the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Chesterfield. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chesterfield vs Rochdale?
A very open match: only 99 Elo points separate Chesterfield (1,795) and Rochdale (1,895).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chesterfield have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Rochdale have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Salford City(away) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(home) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Scunthorpe(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 14, 2026 | FC Halifax Town(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Newport County(away) | 0-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bradford(away) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tranmere(away) | 2-2 | League Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | FC Halifax Town(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Chesterfield win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Rochdale win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2024 | Chesterfield 2-2 Rochdale | National League |
| Sep 26, 2023 | Rochdale 1-2 Chesterfield | National League |
| Nov 7, 2020 | Rochdale 1-2 Chesterfield | FA Cup |
| Mar 25, 2017 | Chesterfield 1-3 Rochdale | League One |
| Dec 26, 2016 | Rochdale 3-0 Chesterfield | League One |
| Dec 6, 2016 | Rochdale 0-2 Chesterfield | EFL Trophy |
Last archived meeting: Chesterfield vs Rochdale on Feb 24, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Chesterfield score 0.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Rochdale score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield | 0.9 | 0.7 | 6 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
| Rochdale | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chesterfield sit 16th in League Two (3 points from 2 matches) and Rochdale sit 23rd (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Chesterfield | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 23 | Rochdale | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chesterfield vs Rochdale?
- The Footlab model makes Rochdale the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Chesterfield.
- Where and when is Chesterfield vs Rochdale played?
- Chesterfield vs Rochdale is played on March 26, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at SMH Group Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.