Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 27Kick-off on September 10, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC)Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois
The Footlab model makes Chicago Fire the favourite at 48%, against 23% for a draw and 30% for Inter Miami. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami?
A very open match: only 57 Elo points separate Chicago Fire (1,851) and Inter Miami (1,909).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chicago Fire have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Inter Miami have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | New York Red Bulls(away) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Orlando City SC(away) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Portland Timbers(home) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Cruz Azul(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Santos Laguna(home) | 3-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Toronto FC(home) | 1-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(away) | 2-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Nashville SC(away) | 1-4 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Leon(home) | 2-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Monterrey(home) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Chicago Fire win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Inter Miami win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2026 | Inter Miami 3-2 Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Inter Miami 3-5 Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Chicago Fire 0-0 Inter Miami | Major League Soccer |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Chicago Fire 1-4 Inter Miami | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 20, 2024 | Inter Miami 2-1 Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
| Oct 5, 2023 | Chicago Fire 4-1 Inter Miami | Major League Soccer |
Last archived meeting: Inter Miami vs Chicago Fire on Jul 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Chicago Fire score 1.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Inter Miami score 2.5 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire | 1.9 | 1.5 | 2 | 13/15 | 12/15 |
| Inter Miami | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2 | 13/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chicago Fire sit 3rd in Major League Soccer (36 points from 20 matches) and Inter Miami sit 2nd (39 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Inter Miami | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 49 | 40 | 39 |
| 3 | Chicago Fire | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 37 | 26 | 36 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami?
- The Footlab model makes Chicago Fire the favourite at 48%, against 23% for a draw and 30% for Inter Miami.
- Where and when is Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami played?
- Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami is played on September 10, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC) at Soldier Field, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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