Where and when is Toronto FC vs Nashville SC played?

Toronto FC vs Nashville SC is played on September 9, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at BMO Field, in the Major League Soccer.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Toronto FC vs Nashville SC: prediction and stats

Major League SoccerRegular Season - 27Kick-off on September 9, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC)BMO Field, Toronto, Ontario

Toronto FC

Nashville SC

The Footlab model makes Toronto FC the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Nashville SC. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Toronto FC vs Nashville SC?

Nashville SC starts as the favourite with a 105-point Elo edge (1,910 vs 1,804).

Toronto FC win39 %

Draw28 %

Nashville SC win33 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Toronto FC have 2 wins, 7 draws and 6 defeats; Nashville SC have 9, 2 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Toronto FC
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Inter Miami(away)	2-1	Major League Soccer
Aug 19, 2026	Charlotte(home)	3-3	Major League Soccer
Aug 15, 2026	New England Revolution(home)	2-1	Major League Soccer
Jul 31, 2026	New York City FC(away)	1-1	Major League Soccer
Jul 25, 2026	DC United(away)	1-2	Major League Soccer

Nashville SC
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Columbus Crew(home)	3-2	Major League Soccer
Aug 19, 2026	New York Red Bulls(away)	1-0	Major League Soccer
Aug 16, 2026	Inter Miami(home)	4-1	Major League Soccer
Aug 13, 2026	Monterrey(away)	1-2	Leagues Cup
Aug 10, 2026	Atletico San Luis(home)	4-1	Leagues Cup

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Toronto FC win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Nashville SC win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jul 20, 2025	Nashville SC 1-0 Toronto FC	Major League Soccer
May 24, 2025	Toronto FC 1-2 Nashville SC	Major League Soccer
Jun 19, 2024	Toronto FC 1-2 Nashville SC	Major League Soccer
May 16, 2024	Nashville SC 2-0 Toronto FC	Major League Soccer
Jun 10, 2023	Toronto FC 1-1 Nashville SC	Major League Soccer
Apr 9, 2023	Nashville SC 0-0 Toronto FC	Major League Soccer

Last archived meeting: Nashville SC vs Toronto FC on Jul 20, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Toronto FC score 1.5 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Nashville SC score 1.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Toronto FC	1.5	1.9	2	13/15	11/15
Nashville SC	1.8	1.1	4	8/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Toronto FC sit 10th in Major League Soccer (24 points from 21 matches) and Nashville SC sit 1st (49 points from 21 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	21	15	4	2	43	17	49
10	Toronto FC	21	5	9	7	31	37	24

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Toronto FC vs Nashville SC?: The Footlab model makes Toronto FC the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Nashville SC.
Where and when is Toronto FC vs Nashville SC played?: Toronto FC vs Nashville SC is played on September 9, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at BMO Field, in the Major League Soccer.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.