New York City FC vs New England Revolution: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 27Kick-off on September 9, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC)Yankee Stadium, New York City
The Footlab model makes New York City FC the favourite at 47%, against 24% for a draw and 29% for New England Revolution. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win New York City FC vs New England Revolution?
A very open match: only 59 Elo points separate New York City FC (1,793) and New England Revolution (1,735).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, New York City FC have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; New England Revolution have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | FC Cincinnati(away) | 1-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(home) | 2-3 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Necaxa(home) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cruz Azul(away) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Santos Laguna(home) | 2-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | DC United(away) | 3-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Toronto FC(away) | 1-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Houston Dynamo(home) | 0-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 1, 2026 | CF Montreal(away) | 2-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Atlanta United FC(home) | 4-1 | Major League Soccer |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 New York City FC win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 New England Revolution win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2025 | New England Revolution 2-0 New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| Mar 15, 2025 | New York City FC 2-1 New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 9, 2024 | New England Revolution 1-1 New York City FC | Leagues Cup |
| May 25, 2024 | New England Revolution 0-1 New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| Apr 13, 2024 | New York City FC 2-0 New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| Jun 3, 2023 | New York City FC 0-0 New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
Last archived meeting: New England Revolution vs New York City FC on Apr 19, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
New York City FC score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; New England Revolution score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York City FC | 1.5 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| New England Revolution | 1.5 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
New York City FC sit 7th in Major League Soccer (26 points from 20 matches) and New England Revolution sit 4th (33 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | New England Revolution | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 25 | 33 |
| 7 | New York City FC | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 34 | 29 | 26 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for New York City FC vs New England Revolution?
- The Footlab model makes New York City FC the favourite at 47%, against 24% for a draw and 29% for New England Revolution.
- Where and when is New York City FC vs New England Revolution played?
- New York City FC vs New England Revolution is played on September 9, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at Yankee Stadium, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 9, 2026Toronto FCvsNashville SC
- Sep 9, 2026Philadelphia UnionvsFC Cincinnati
- Sep 9, 2026Atlanta United FCvsOrlando City SC
- Sep 9, 2026CF MontrealvsCharlotte
- Sep 9, 2026DC UnitedvsColumbus Crew
- Sep 10, 2026Chicago FirevsInter Miami
- Sep 10, 2026Houston DynamovsReal Salt Lake
- Sep 10, 2026Minnesota United FCvsFC Dallas