Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng: prediction and stats
Super LeagueRegular Season - 27Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 11:35 AM (UTC)Tongliang Long Stadium, Chongqing
The Footlab model makes Shandong Luneng the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Chongqing Tongliang Long. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng starts as the favourite with a 142-point Elo edge (1,666 vs 1,524).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chongqing Tongliang Long have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Shandong Luneng have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Dalian Zhixing(home) | 0-1 | Super League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Qingdao Youth Island(away) | 0-0 | Super League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | SHANGHAI SIPG(home) | 2-3 | Super League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Sichuan Jiuniu(away) | 0-2 | Super League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Wuhan Three Towns(away) | 0-1 | Super League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Qingdao Youth Island(away) | 0-2 | Super League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Qingdao Jonoon(home) | 3-1 | Super League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Tianjin Teda(home) | 2-1 | Super League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | SHANGHAI SIPG(away) | 1-0 | Super League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Henan Jianye(home) | 1-2 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Chongqing Tongliang Long win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Shandong Luneng win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Shandong Luneng 3-1 Chongqing Tongliang Long | Super League |
| Jun 22, 2024 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 3-6 Shandong Luneng | FA Cup |
Last archived meeting: Shandong Luneng vs Chongqing Tongliang Long on May 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Chongqing Tongliang Long score 0.9 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Shandong Luneng score 2.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chongqing Tongliang Long | 0.9 | 1.2 | 6 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Shandong Luneng | 2.1 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chongqing Tongliang Long sit 2nd in Super League (24 points from 15 matches) and Shandong Luneng sit 5th (18 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 16 | 24 |
| 5 | Shandong Luneng | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 25 | 18 |
| 6 | Shandong Luneng | 24 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 42 | 40 | 33 |
| 7 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 25 | 28 | 30 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng?
- The Footlab model makes Shandong Luneng the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Chongqing Tongliang Long.
- Where and when is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng played?
- Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng is played on October 11, 2026 at 11:35 AM (UTC) at Tongliang Long Stadium, in the Super League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 9, 2026Sichuan JiuniuvsHenan Jianye
- Oct 9, 2026Hangzhou GreentownvsSHANGHAI SIPG
- Oct 10, 2026Chengdu Better CityvsTianjin Teda
- Oct 10, 2026Shanghai ShenhuavsYunnan Yukun
- Oct 10, 2026Qingdao JonoonvsBeijing Guoan
- Oct 11, 2026Qingdao Youth IslandvsDalian Zhixing
- Oct 11, 2026Shenyang UrbanvsWuhan Three Towns