Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan: prediction and stats
Super LeagueRegular Season - 27Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Qingdao
The Footlab model makes Beijing Guoan the favourite at 63%, against 20% for a draw and 17% for Qingdao Jonoon. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan starts as the favourite with a 272-point Elo edge (1,735 vs 1,463).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Qingdao Jonoon have 1 wins, 2 draws and 12 defeats; Beijing Guoan have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | SHANGHAI SIPG(away) | 1-2 | Super League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Shandong Luneng(away) | 1-3 | Super League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Shanghai Shenhua(home) | 0-1 | Super League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Qingdao Youth Island(away) | 0-2 | Super League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Tianjin Teda(home) | 0-2 | Super League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Yunnan Yukun(home) | 3-3 | Super League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Shanghai Shenhua(away) | 3-0 | Super League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tianjin Teda(away) | 4-2 | Super League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Sichuan Jiuniu(home) | 4-0 | Super League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hangzhou Greentown(home) | 2-1 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Qingdao Jonoon win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Beijing Guoan win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | Beijing Guoan 4-2 Qingdao Jonoon | Super League |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Beijing Guoan 2-4 Qingdao Jonoon | Super League |
| May 17, 2025 | Qingdao Jonoon 1-1 Beijing Guoan | Super League |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Beijing Guoan 6-0 Qingdao Jonoon | Super League |
| May 21, 2024 | Qingdao Jonoon 1-1 Beijing Guoan | Super League |
| Jul 22, 2023 | Beijing Guoan 2-0 Qingdao Jonoon | Super League |
Last archived meeting: Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon on May 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Qingdao Jonoon score 1.2 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Beijing Guoan score 2.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qingdao Jonoon | 1.2 | 2.5 | 0 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Beijing Guoan | 2.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Qingdao Jonoon sit 14th in Super League (10 points from 15 matches) and Beijing Guoan sit 10th (15 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Beijing Guoan | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 48 | 32 | 36 |
| 10 | Beijing Guoan | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 23 | 15 |
| 14 | Qingdao Jonoon | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 25 | 10 |
| 16 | Qingdao Jonoon | 24 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 32 | 46 | 14 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan?
- The Footlab model makes Beijing Guoan the favourite at 63%, against 20% for a draw and 17% for Qingdao Jonoon.
- Where and when is Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan played?
- Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan is played on October 10, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, in the Super League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 9, 2026Sichuan JiuniuvsHenan Jianye
- Oct 9, 2026Hangzhou GreentownvsSHANGHAI SIPG
- Oct 10, 2026Chengdu Better CityvsTianjin Teda
- Oct 10, 2026Shanghai ShenhuavsYunnan Yukun
- Oct 11, 2026Qingdao Youth IslandvsDalian Zhixing
- Oct 11, 2026Shenyang UrbanvsWuhan Three Towns
- Oct 11, 2026Chongqing Tongliang LongvsShandong Luneng