Covadonga vs Valladolid: prediction and stats
Copa del ReyRound of 128Kick-off on October 28, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal, Oviedo
The Footlab AI model makes Valladolid the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Covadonga. The most likely score is 1-1. If Valladolid wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,963 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Covadonga vs Valladolid?
A very open match: only 49 Elo points separate Covadonga (1,935) and Valladolid (1,886).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Covadonga vs Valladolid
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Covadonga
Not enough data to predict the Covadonga lineup.
Valladolid
4-1-3-2- 9Juanmi Latasa
- 19Adrian Arnuncio
- 21J. Ponceau
- 30Víctor Fernández
- 24S. Jurić
- 8T. Ojeda
- 4David Torres
- 27Iván Garriel
- 15Pablo Tomeo
- 14Iván Alejo
- 1Álvaro Aceves
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Covadonga have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Valladolid have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Mosconia(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | San Martín(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Siero(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Colunga(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Caudal(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Eldense(home) | 2-3 | Segunda División |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Albacete(home) | 5-0 | Segunda División |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Las Palmas(away) | 2-2 | Segunda División |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Cordoba(home) | 3-1 | Segunda División |
| Sep 20, 2026 | AD Ceuta FC(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División |
How many goals should we expect?
Covadonga score 2.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Valladolid score 1.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Covadonga | 2.5 | 1.2 | 6 | 8/15 | 13/15 |
| Valladolid | 1.7 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Covadonga vs Valladolid?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Covadonga vs Valladolid?
- The Footlab AI model makes Valladolid the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Covadonga.
- Where and when is Covadonga vs Valladolid played?
- Covadonga vs Valladolid is played on October 28, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal, in the Copa del Rey.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.