Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan: prediction and stats
EkstraklasaRegular Season - 18Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Kraków
The Footlab model makes Lech Poznan the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Cracovia Krakow. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan starts as the favourite with a 192-point Elo edge (2,141 vs 1,949).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cracovia Krakow have 5 wins, 8 draws and 2 defeats; Lech Poznan have 11, 3 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Wieczysta Kraków(home) | 3-2 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Raków Częstochowa(home) | 2-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Slask Wroclaw(away) | 0-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Pogon Szczecin(home) | 0-2 | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Lech Poznan(away) | 0-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Thun(home) | 7-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | KI Klaksvik(away) | 5-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Piast Gliwice(home) | 3-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 6, 2026 | KI Klaksvik(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Wieczysta Kraków(away) | 2-1 | Ekstraklasa |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Cracovia Krakow win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Lech Poznan win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | Lech Poznan 0-0 Cracovia Krakow | Ekstraklasa |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Cracovia Krakow 2-2 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 18, 2025 | Lech Poznan 1-4 Cracovia Krakow | Ekstraklasa |
| Apr 21, 2025 | Lech Poznan 2-1 Cracovia Krakow | Ekstraklasa |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Cracovia Krakow 0-2 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Lech Poznan 0-0 Cracovia Krakow | Ekstraklasa |
Last archived meeting: Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow on Jul 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cracovia Krakow score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Lech Poznan score 2.6 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cracovia Krakow | 1.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Lech Poznan | 2.6 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cracovia Krakow sit 3rd in Ekstraklasa (8 points from 5 matches) and Lech Poznan sit 4th (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cracovia Krakow | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 8 |
| 4 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan?
- The Footlab model makes Lech Poznan the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Cracovia Krakow.
- Where and when is Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan played?
- Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan is played on December 12, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, in the Ekstraklasa.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 12, 2026Slask WroclawvsGornik Zabrze
- Dec 12, 2026Legia WarszawavsPogon Szczecin
- Dec 12, 2026Wisla PlockvsRaków Częstochowa
- Dec 12, 2026Korona KielcevsJagiellonia
- Dec 12, 2026Piast GliwicevsZaglebie Lubin
- Dec 12, 2026GKS KatowicevsWisla Krakow
- Dec 12, 2026Motor LublinvsWidzew Łódź
- Dec 12, 2026Wieczysta KrakówvsRadomiak Radom