Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin: prediction and stats
EkstraklasaRegular Season - 18Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Warszawa
The Footlab model makes Legia Warszawa the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Pogon Szczecin. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin?
A very open match: only 66 Elo points separate Legia Warszawa (2,059) and Pogon Szczecin (1,993).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Legia Warszawa have 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats; Pogon Szczecin have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Piast Gliwice(away) | 1-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Radomiak Radom(home) | 5-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Korona Kielce(away) | 1-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Zaglebie Lubin(home) | 3-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Pogon Szczecin(away) | 1-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Wisla Krakow(home) | 2-2 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Motor Lublin(home) | 3-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Cracovia Krakow(away) | 2-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Legia Warszawa(home) | 0-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Sturm Graz(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Legia Warszawa win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Pogon Szczecin win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 24, 2026 | Pogon Szczecin 0-1 Legia Warszawa | Ekstraklasa |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Pogon Szczecin 0-2 Legia Warszawa | Ekstraklasa |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Legia Warszawa 1-2 Pogon Szczecin | Cup |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Legia Warszawa 1-0 Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa |
| May 2, 2025 | Pogon Szczecin 3-4 Legia Warszawa | Cup |
| Mar 28, 2025 | Legia Warszawa 0-0 Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa |
Last archived meeting: Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa on Jul 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Legia Warszawa score 1.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Pogon Szczecin score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legia Warszawa | 1.9 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Pogon Szczecin | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Legia Warszawa sit 1st in Ekstraklasa (11 points from 5 matches) and Pogon Szczecin sit 5th (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Warszawa | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Pogon Szczecin | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin?
- The Footlab model makes Legia Warszawa the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Pogon Szczecin.
- Where and when is Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin played?
- Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin is played on December 12, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, in the Ekstraklasa.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 12, 2026Slask WroclawvsGornik Zabrze
- Dec 12, 2026Wisla PlockvsRaków Częstochowa
- Dec 12, 2026Korona KielcevsJagiellonia
- Dec 12, 2026Piast GliwicevsZaglebie Lubin
- Dec 12, 2026Cracovia KrakowvsLech Poznan
- Dec 12, 2026GKS KatowicevsWisla Krakow
- Dec 12, 2026Motor LublinvsWidzew Łódź
- Dec 12, 2026Wieczysta KrakówvsRadomiak Radom