Cuiaba vs São Bernardo: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 36Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Arena Pantanal, Cuiabá, Mato Grosso
The Footlab model makes Cuiaba the favourite at 39%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for São Bernardo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cuiaba vs São Bernardo?
A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate Cuiaba (1,817) and São Bernardo (1,831).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cuiaba have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; São Bernardo have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Goias(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Operario-PR(home) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ceara(away) | 3-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Fortaleza EC(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Sport Recife(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Nautico Recife(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Fortaleza EC(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Botafogo SP(home) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Operario-PR(away) | 3-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Ceara(home) | 3-4 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Cuiaba win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 São Bernardo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 12, 2026 | São Bernardo 2-2 Cuiaba | Serie B |
Last archived meeting: São Bernardo vs Cuiaba on Jul 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cuiaba score 1.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; São Bernardo score 1.2 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuiaba | 1.1 | 0.9 | 4 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
| São Bernardo | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cuiaba sit 12th in Serie B (33 points from 24 matches) and São Bernardo sit 13th (32 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Cuiaba | 24 | 7 | 12 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 33 |
| 13 | São Bernardo | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 33 | 27 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cuiaba vs São Bernardo?
- The Footlab model makes Cuiaba the favourite at 39%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for São Bernardo.
- Where and when is Cuiaba vs São Bernardo played?
- Cuiaba vs São Bernardo is played on October 31, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Arena Pantanal, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.