Nautico Recife vs Avai: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 36Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho, Recife, Pernambuco
The Footlab model makes Nautico Recife the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Avai. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nautico Recife vs Avai?
A very open match: only 19 Elo points separate Nautico Recife (1,856) and Avai (1,837).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nautico Recife have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Avai have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | São Bernardo(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Ceara(home) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ponte Preta(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Atletico Goianiense(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Criciuma(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Ponte Preta(away) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Sport Recife(home) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Operario-PR(away) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 11, 2026 | CRB(home) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Juventude(away) | 0-1 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Nautico Recife win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Avai win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 12, 2026 | Avai 2-0 Nautico Recife | Serie B |
| Nov 21, 2021 | Nautico Recife 1-2 Avai | Serie B |
| Aug 14, 2021 | Avai 2-0 Nautico Recife | Serie B |
| Nov 6, 2020 | Nautico Recife 2-2 Avai | Serie B |
| Aug 9, 2020 | Avai 3-1 Nautico Recife | Serie B |
| Nov 12, 2016 | Avai 3-0 Nautico Recife | Serie B |
Last archived meeting: Avai vs Nautico Recife on Jul 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nautico Recife score 0.9 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Avai score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nautico Recife | 0.9 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
| Avai | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nautico Recife sit 15th in Serie B (31 points from 24 matches) and Avai sit 16th (29 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nautico Recife | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 28 | 27 | 31 |
| 16 | Avai | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 30 | 29 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nautico Recife vs Avai?
- The Footlab model makes Nautico Recife the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Avai.
- Where and when is Nautico Recife vs Avai played?
- Nautico Recife vs Avai is played on October 31, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.