D. La Serena vs Concepción: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónRegular Season - 25Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC)Estadio La Portada de La Serena, La Serena
The Footlab AI model makes Concepción the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for D. La Serena. The most likely score is 1-1. If Concepción wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win D. La Serena vs Concepción?
A very open match: only 80 Elo points separate D. La Serena (1,684) and Concepción (1,765).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for D. La Serena vs Concepción
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
D. La Serena
3-4-3- 10J. Vargas
- 14F. Chamorro
- 9Á. Henríquez
- 26F. Dinamarca
- 8G. Escalante
- 21B. Gutiérrez
- 23M. Marín
- 34I. Rasso
- 33R. Delgado
- 4F. Mac Allister
- 31J. Tapia
Concepción
4-2-3-1- 32J. Larrivey
- 20J. Henríquez
- 16M. Sandoval
- 30E. Espinoza
- 22M. Dávila
- 31Nicolas Fuentes
- 21N. Rodríguez
- 4A. Cáceres
- 29D. Varas
- 37F. Grillo
- 25N. Araya
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:42 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, D. La Serena have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Concepción have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Universidad de Chile(home) | 0-3 | Primera División |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Nublense(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Union La Calera(away) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Cobresal(home) | 3-3 | Primera División |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Universidad de Concepcion(away) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | O'Higgins(away) | 0-2 | Copa Chile |
| Sep 30, 2026 | O'Higgins(home) | 0-1 | Copa Chile |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Curico Unido(home) | 2-0 | Copa Chile |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Curico Unido(away) | 4-0 | Copa Chile |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Colo Colo(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 D. La Serena wins, 1 draw, 0 Concepción wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Concepción 3-3 D. La Serena | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Concepción vs D. La Serena on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
D. La Serena score 1.4 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Concepción score 1.4 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. La Serena | 1.4 | 1.7 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Concepción | 1.4 | 0.6 | 8 | 3/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
D. La Serena sit 9th in Primera División (30 points from 23 matches) and Concepción sit 8th (31 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Concepción | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 25 | 26 | 31 |
| 9 | D. La Serena | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 34 | 38 | 30 |
A question about D. La Serena vs Concepción?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for D. La Serena vs Concepción?
- The Footlab AI model makes Concepción the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for D. La Serena.
- Where and when is D. La Serena vs Concepción played?
- D. La Serena vs Concepción is played on October 25, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio La Portada de La Serena, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.