D. La Serena vs Palestino: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónRegular Season - 27Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Portada de La Serena, La Serena
The Footlab model makes Palestino the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for D. La Serena. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win D. La Serena vs Palestino?
Palestino starts as the favourite with a 123-point Elo edge (1,775 vs 1,652).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, D. La Serena have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Palestino have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Cobresal(home) | 3-3 | Primera División |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Universidad de Concepcion(away) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Coquimbo Unido(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | O'Higgins(home) | 1-2 | Primera División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | U. Catolica(away) | 3-3 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | O'Higgins(away) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Huachipato(home) | 5-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Universidad de Chile(away) | 1-2 | Primera División |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Coquimbo Unido(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Nublense(away) | 0-2 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 D. La Serena win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Palestino win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Palestino 5-1 D. La Serena | Primera División |
| Nov 29, 2025 | D. La Serena 0-3 Palestino | Primera División |
| Jun 14, 2025 | Palestino 2-1 D. La Serena | Primera División |
| Oct 23, 2022 | Palestino 5-0 D. La Serena | Primera División |
| May 14, 2022 | D. La Serena 0-0 Palestino | Primera División |
| Oct 25, 2021 | Palestino 3-3 D. La Serena | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Palestino vs D. La Serena on May 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
D. La Serena score 1.7 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Palestino score 1.6 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. La Serena | 1.7 | 2.1 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Palestino | 1.6 | 1.2 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
D. La Serena sit 12th in Primera División (18 points from 15 matches) and Palestino sit 5th (24 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Palestino | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 27 | 33 |
| 5 | Palestino | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 21 | 24 |
| 10 | D. La Serena | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 31 | 34 | 24 |
| 12 | D. La Serena | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 21 | 25 | 18 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for D. La Serena vs Palestino?
- The Footlab model makes Palestino the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for D. La Serena.
- Where and when is D. La Serena vs Palestino played?
- D. La Serena vs Palestino is played on November 8, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Portada de La Serena, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.