De Graafschap vs NAC Breda: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 02:45 PM (UTC)Stadion De Vijverberg, Doetinchem
The Footlab model makes NAC Breda the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for De Graafschap. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
A very open match: only 76 Elo points separate De Graafschap (1,716) and NAC Breda (1,792).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, De Graafschap have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; NAC Breda have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | VVV Venlo(away) | 1-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Jong AZ(home) | 2-5 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Helmond Sport(away) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Excelsior(home) | 1-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Kifisia(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Jong Ajax(home) | 3-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | VVV Venlo(home) | 0-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | FC OSS(away) | 2-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bolton(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | OFI(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 De Graafschap win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 NAC Breda win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2024 | NAC Breda 0-0 De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| Nov 3, 2023 | De Graafschap 1-0 NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie |
| Feb 10, 2023 | NAC Breda 2-0 De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 9, 2022 | De Graafschap 1-1 NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie |
| Mar 11, 2022 | NAC Breda 2-0 De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 20, 2021 | De Graafschap 2-0 NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie |
Last archived meeting: NAC Breda vs De Graafschap on Feb 2, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
De Graafschap score 2.1 and concede 2.7 goals per match over their last 15; NAC Breda score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De Graafschap | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
| NAC Breda | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
De Graafschap sit 17th in Eerste Divisie (1 points from 3 matches) and NAC Breda sit 7th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | NAC Breda | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 7 | NAC Breda | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 17 | De Graafschap | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| 17 | De Graafschap | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
- The Footlab model makes NAC Breda the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for De Graafschap.
- Where and when is De Graafschap vs NAC Breda played?
- De Graafschap vs NAC Breda is played on September 20, 2026 at 02:45 PM (UTC) at Stadion De Vijverberg, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.