Deportivo Merlo vs Brown DE Adrogue: prediction and stats
Primera B MetropolitanaRegular Season - 38Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio José Manuel Moreno, Parque San Martín, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Deportivo Merlo the favourite at 36%, against 32% for a draw and 32% for Brown DE Adrogue. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Deportivo Merlo vs Brown DE Adrogue?
A very open match: only 0 Elo points separate Deportivo Merlo (1,620) and Brown DE Adrogue (1,620).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Deportivo Merlo have 2 wins, 7 draws and 6 defeats; Brown DE Adrogue have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ituzaingó(away) | 0-0 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Deportivo Camioneros(away) | 0-0 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sportivo Italiano(home) | 0-4 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 2, 2026 | San Martín Burzaco(away) | 1-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Villa San Carlos(home) | 1-2 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Real Pilar(away) | 0-2 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 21, 2026 | UAI Urquiza(home) | 1-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Villa Dalmine(away) | 0-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Excursionistas(home) | 1-0 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Arsenal Sarandi(away) | 1-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Deportivo Merlo win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Brown DE Adrogue win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | Brown DE Adrogue 0-1 Deportivo Merlo | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Brown DE Adrogue 1-0 Deportivo Merlo | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Deportivo Merlo 0-1 Brown DE Adrogue | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 29, 2015 | Brown DE Adrogue 3-0 Deportivo Merlo | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Apr 10, 2015 | Deportivo Merlo 1-3 Brown DE Adrogue | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Oct 1, 2014 | Brown DE Adrogue 3-1 Deportivo Merlo | Primera B Metropolitana |
Last archived meeting: Brown DE Adrogue vs Deportivo Merlo on May 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Deportivo Merlo score 0.9 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Brown DE Adrogue score 0.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Merlo | 0.9 | 1.7 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Brown DE Adrogue | 0.7 | 0.9 | 6 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Deportivo Merlo sit 8th in Primera B Metropolitana (31 points from 20 matches) and Brown DE Adrogue sit 20th (19 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Deportivo Merlo | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 24 | 24 | 31 |
| 13 | Deportivo Merlo | 31 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 33 | 45 | 39 |
| 20 | Brown DE Adrogue | 20 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 23 | 19 |
| 20 | Brown DE Adrogue | 32 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 20 | 34 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Deportivo Merlo vs Brown DE Adrogue?
- The Footlab model makes Deportivo Merlo the favourite at 36%, against 32% for a draw and 32% for Brown DE Adrogue.
- Where and when is Deportivo Merlo vs Brown DE Adrogue played?
- Deportivo Merlo vs Brown DE Adrogue is played on October 3, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio José Manuel Moreno, in the Primera B Metropolitana.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 3, 2026Defensores UnidosvsArgentino Quilmes
- Oct 3, 2026UAI UrquizavsItuzaingó
- Oct 3, 2026Real PilarvsVilla Dalmine
- Oct 3, 2026Dock SudvsDeportivo Armenio
- Oct 3, 2026Deportivo CamionerosvsDeportivo Laferrere
- Oct 3, 2026ComunicacionesvsFlandria
- Oct 3, 2026Villa San CarlosvsArsenal Sarandi
- Oct 3, 2026San Martín BurzacovsArgentino de Merlo