Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.: prediction and stats
Premier DivisionRegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 19, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Londonderry
The Footlab AI model makes St Patrick's Athl. the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Derry City. The most likely score is 1-1. If St Patrick's Athl. wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,466 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
A very open match: only 55 Elo points separate Derry City (1,686) and St Patrick's Athl. (1,741).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Derry City
3-4-3- 7M. Duffy
- 14E. Chapman
- 29T. Smith
- 8A. O'Reilly
- 17N. Twisk
- 12D. Burns
- 19B. Fleming
- 3Patrick McClean
- 4J. Stott
- 23C. Dummigan
- 13Tom Norcott
St Patrick's Athl.
3-1-4-2- 9A. Keena
- 27R. Edmondson
- 6J. Lennon
- 7Z. Elbouzedi
- 48R. Sheridan
- 19B. Baggley
- 3A. Breslin
- 2S. Hoare
- 4J. Redmond
- 24L. Turner
- 94J. Anang
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 07:12 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Derry City have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; St Patrick's Athl. have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Galway United(away) | 2-0 | FAI Cup |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Galway United(home) | 1-0 | Premier Division |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Waterford(away) | 2-2 | Premier Division |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Shelbourne(away) | 1-0 | Premier Division |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Dundalk(home) | 4-2 | FAI Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sligo Rovers(away) | 1-0 | Premier Division |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Dundalk(away) | 4-0 | Premier Division |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Shamrock Rovers(home) | 2-0 | Premier Division |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Bohemians(home) | 1-1 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Waterford(home) | 0-2 | Premier Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Derry City wins, 4 draws, 0 St Patrick's Athl. wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2026 | St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Derry City | Premier Division |
| May 22, 2026 | Derry City 0-0 St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division |
| Mar 16, 2026 | St Patrick's Athl. 0-0 Derry City | Premier Division |
| Aug 29, 2025 | Derry City 2-2 St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division |
| Jun 23, 2025 | St Patrick's Athl. 0-1 Derry City | Premier Division |
| May 5, 2025 | Derry City 1-0 St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division |
Last archived meeting: St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City on Aug 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Derry City score 1.8 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; St Patrick's Athl. score 1.8 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derry City | 1.8 | 1.4 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| St Patrick's Athl. | 1.8 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Derry City sit 5th in Premier Division (41 points from 32 matches) and St Patrick's Athl. sit 2nd (59 points from 32 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | St Patrick's Athl. | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 52 | 25 | 59 |
| 5 | Derry City | 32 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 45 | 42 | 41 |
A question about Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
- The Footlab AI model makes St Patrick's Athl. the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Derry City.
- Where and when is Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. played?
- Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. is played on October 19, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, in the Premier Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.