Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.: prediction and stats
Premier DivisionRegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 9, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Londonderry
The Footlab model makes St Patrick's Athl. the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Derry City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
A very open match: only 90 Elo points separate Derry City (1,660) and St Patrick's Athl. (1,750).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Derry City have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; St Patrick's Athl. have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Bohemians(away) | 3-5 | Premier Division |
| Aug 14, 2026 | UCD(away) | 2-1 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Sligo Rovers(home) | 2-0 | Premier Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | St Patrick's Athl.(away) | 1-1 | Premier Division |
| Jul 30, 2026 | HNK Rijeka(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Drogheda United(away) | 2-0 | Premier Division |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Shamrock Rovers(home) | 3-2 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Shelbourne(away) | 2-1 | Premier Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Derry City(home) | 1-1 | Premier Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Dundalk(home) | 1-1 | Premier Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Derry City win(s), 4 draw(s), 0 St Patrick's Athl. win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2026 | St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Derry City | Premier Division |
| May 22, 2026 | Derry City 0-0 St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division |
| Mar 16, 2026 | St Patrick's Athl. 0-0 Derry City | Premier Division |
| Aug 29, 2025 | Derry City 2-2 St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division |
| Jun 23, 2025 | St Patrick's Athl. 0-1 Derry City | Premier Division |
| May 5, 2025 | Derry City 1-0 St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division |
Last archived meeting: St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City on Aug 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Derry City score 1.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; St Patrick's Athl. score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derry City | 1.7 | 1.6 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| St Patrick's Athl. | 1.5 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Derry City sit 6th in Premier Division (33 points from 28 matches) and St Patrick's Athl. sit 2nd (50 points from 28 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | St Patrick's Athl. | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 45 | 23 | 50 |
| 2 | St Patrick's Athl. | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 35 | 17 | 38 |
| 6 | Derry City | 28 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 38 | 37 | 33 |
| 6 | Derry City | 22 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 27 | 26 | 25 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
- The Footlab model makes St Patrick's Athl. the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Derry City.
- Where and when is Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. played?
- Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. is played on October 9, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, in the Premier Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.