Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers: prediction and stats
Premier DivisionRegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 9, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Tolka Park, Dublin
The Footlab model makes Shelbourne the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Sligo Rovers. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers?
Shelbourne starts as the favourite with a 130-point Elo edge (1,680 vs 1,550).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Shelbourne have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Sligo Rovers have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2026 | Ajax(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | St Patrick's Athl.(home) | 1-2 | Premier Division |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Ajax(away) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Waterford(away) | 0-1 | Premier Division |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Kalju Nomme(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Waterford(home) | 0-0 | Premier Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kerry(home) | 4-0 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Derry City(away) | 0-2 | Premier Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Dundalk(away) | 1-1 | Premier Division |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Drogheda United(home) | 2-2 | Premier Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Shelbourne win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Sligo Rovers win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 2026 | Sligo Rovers 2-2 Shelbourne | Premier Division |
| May 8, 2026 | Shelbourne 0-0 Sligo Rovers | Premier Division |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Sligo Rovers 0-1 Shelbourne | Premier Division |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Shelbourne 3-1 Sligo Rovers | Premier Division |
| Aug 2, 2025 | Sligo Rovers 0-2 Shelbourne | Premier Division |
| May 23, 2025 | Shelbourne 3-2 Sligo Rovers | Premier Division |
Last archived meeting: Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne on Jun 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Shelbourne score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Sligo Rovers score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shelbourne | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
| Sligo Rovers | 1.4 | 1.9 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Shelbourne sit 5th in Premier Division (34 points from 26 matches) and Sligo Rovers sit 10th (23 points from 28 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shelbourne | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 36 | 38 | 34 |
| 5 | Shelbourne | 21 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 31 | 29 | 30 |
| 9 | Sligo Rovers | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 19 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 23 | 45 | 23 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers?
- The Footlab model makes Shelbourne the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Sligo Rovers.
- Where and when is Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers played?
- Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers is played on October 9, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Tolka Park, in the Premier Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.