Dundalk vs Bohemians: prediction and stats
Premier DivisionRegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 9, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Oriel Park, Dundalk
The Footlab model makes Bohemians the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Dundalk. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Bohemians starts as the favourite with a 111-point Elo edge (1,710 vs 1,599).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dundalk have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Bohemians have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Galway United(home) | 1-2 | Premier Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Castlebar Celtic(home) | 8-0 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Shamrock Rovers(away) | 2-3 | Premier Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Sligo Rovers(home) | 1-1 | Premier Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | St Patrick's Athl.(away) | 1-1 | Premier Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Derry City(home) | 5-3 | Premier Division |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Longford Town(home) | 4-0 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | FC Midtjylland(away) | 2-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Waterford(away) | 1-3 | Premier Division |
| Aug 6, 2026 | FC Midtjylland(home) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Dundalk win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Bohemians win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 19, 2026 | Bohemians 1-2 Dundalk | Premier Division |
| May 8, 2026 | Dundalk 1-3 Bohemians | Premier Division |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Bohemians 1-1 Dundalk | Premier Division |
| Sep 27, 2024 | Dundalk 0-2 Bohemians | Premier Division |
| Jul 26, 2024 | Bohemians 1-1 Dundalk | Premier Division |
| Apr 26, 2024 | Dundalk 2-0 Bohemians | Premier Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Dundalk score 1.9 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Bohemians score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundalk | 1.9 | 1.4 | 3 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| Bohemians | 1.9 | 1.5 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Dundalk sit 4th in Premier Division (37 points from 28 matches) and Bohemians sit 3rd (47 points from 28 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Dundalk | 21 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 34 | 29 | 35 |
| 3 | Bohemians | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 47 | 34 | 47 |
| 4 | Dundalk | 28 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 43 | 43 | 37 |
| 4 | Bohemians | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 33 | 27 | 34 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dundalk vs Bohemians?
- The Footlab model makes Bohemians the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Dundalk.
- Where and when is Dundalk vs Bohemians played?
- Dundalk vs Bohemians is played on October 9, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Oriel Park, in the Premier Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.