EL Merriekh Bentiu vs Heegan: prediction and stats
CAF Champions LeagueSemi-finalsKick-off on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes EL Merriekh Bentiu the favourite at 47%, against 31% for a draw and 22% for Heegan. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win EL Merriekh Bentiu vs Heegan?
Heegan starts as the favourite with a 158-point Elo edge (1,631 vs 1,473).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 5 matches in all competitions, EL Merriekh Bentiu have 0 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; Heegan have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2025 | Azam(away) | 0-2 | CAF Confederation Cup |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Azam(home) | 0-2 | CAF Confederation Cup |
| Jul 15, 2024 | Singida Black Stars(away) | 1-3 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 12, 2024 | APR(away) | 0-1 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 9, 2024 | SC Villa(away) | 0-0 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2025 | Mogadishu City(home) | 2-2 | Somali Premier League |
| May 19, 2025 | Madbacadda(home) | 4-1 | Somali Premier League |
| May 14, 2025 | Jeenyo(away) | 2-2 | Somali Premier League |
| May 9, 2025 | Horseed(away) | 0-0 | Somali Premier League |
| May 4, 2025 | Dekedaha(home) | 2-1 | Somali Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
EL Merriekh Bentiu score 0.2 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 5; Heegan score 2.3 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 32% probability of over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EL Merriekh Bentiu | 0.2 | 1.6 | 1 | 1/5 | 1/5 |
| Heegan | 2.3 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 5 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for EL Merriekh Bentiu vs Heegan?
- The Footlab model makes EL Merriekh Bentiu the favourite at 47%, against 31% for a draw and 22% for Heegan.
- Where and when is EL Merriekh Bentiu vs Heegan played?
- EL Merriekh Bentiu vs Heegan is played on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC), in the CAF Champions League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 32% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.