Match

El Palmar vs Santomera: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Group 13 - 13Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Polideportivo Municipal El Palmar, El Palmar

El PalmarSantomera

The Footlab model makes El Palmar the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Santomera. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win El Palmar vs Santomera?

A very open match: only 44 Elo points separate El Palmar (1,640) and Santomera (1,684).

El Palmar win39 %
Draw27 %
Santomera win34 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, El Palmar have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Santomera have 4, 0 and 11.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

El Palmar
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
May 10, 2026SFC Minerva(away)2-3Tercera División RFEF - Group 13
May 3, 2026Atlético Pulpileño(home)0-0Tercera División RFEF - Group 13
Apr 25, 2026Águilas II(away)1-2Tercera División RFEF - Group 13
Apr 19, 2026UCAM Murcia II(home)0-4Tercera División RFEF - Group 13
Apr 12, 2026Mazarrón FC(away)1-4Tercera División RFEF - Group 13
Santomera
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 22, 2026Cieza(home)1-2Friendlies Clubs
May 10, 2026Olímpico Totana(away)1-3Tercera División RFEF - Group 13
May 2, 2026Cartagena LU II(home)2-1Tercera División RFEF - Group 13
Apr 25, 2026Real Murcia II(away)3-2Tercera División RFEF - Group 13
Apr 19, 2026Yeclano II(home)3-1Tercera División RFEF - Group 13

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 2 El Palmar win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Santomera win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 8, 2026Santomera 0-1 El PalmarTercera División RFEF - Group 13
Oct 26, 2025El Palmar 2-2 SantomeraTercera División RFEF - Group 13
Mar 23, 2025El Palmar 2-3 SantomeraTercera División RFEF - Group 13
Nov 9, 2024Santomera 0-2 El PalmarTercera División RFEF - Group 13

Last archived meeting: Santomera vs El Palmar on Mar 8, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

El Palmar score 0.8 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Santomera score 1.1 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
El Palmar0.81.756/159/15
Santomera1.12.118/1510/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

El Palmar sit 14th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 (32 points from 34 matches) and Santomera sit 15th (32 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
14El Palmar348818274832
15Santomera348818386432

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for El Palmar vs Santomera?
The Footlab model makes El Palmar the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Santomera.
Where and when is El Palmar vs Santomera played?
El Palmar vs Santomera is played on November 29, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Polideportivo Municipal El Palmar, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 13.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: El Palmar and Santomera

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