El Palmar vs Santomera: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Group 13 - 13Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Polideportivo Municipal El Palmar, El Palmar
The Footlab model makes El Palmar the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Santomera. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win El Palmar vs Santomera?
A very open match: only 44 Elo points separate El Palmar (1,640) and Santomera (1,684).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, El Palmar have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Santomera have 4, 0 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | SFC Minerva(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 3, 2026 | Atlético Pulpileño(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Águilas II(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | UCAM Murcia II(home) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Mazarrón FC(away) | 1-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cieza(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Olímpico Totana(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 2, 2026 | Cartagena LU II(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Real Murcia II(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Yeclano II(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 El Palmar win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Santomera win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Santomera 0-1 El Palmar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Oct 26, 2025 | El Palmar 2-2 Santomera | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Mar 23, 2025 | El Palmar 2-3 Santomera | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Santomera 0-2 El Palmar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
Last archived meeting: Santomera vs El Palmar on Mar 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
El Palmar score 0.8 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Santomera score 1.1 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Palmar | 0.8 | 1.7 | 5 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Santomera | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
El Palmar sit 14th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 (32 points from 34 matches) and Santomera sit 15th (32 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | El Palmar | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 27 | 48 | 32 |
| 15 | Santomera | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 38 | 64 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for El Palmar vs Santomera?
- The Footlab model makes El Palmar the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Santomera.
- Where and when is El Palmar vs Santomera played?
- El Palmar vs Santomera is played on November 29, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Polideportivo Municipal El Palmar, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 13.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 29, 2026Atlético PulpileñovsOlímpico Totana
- Nov 29, 2026Mazarrón FCvsSan Javier
- Nov 29, 2026SFC MinervavsUCAM Murcia II
- Nov 29, 2026Bala AzulvsBullas Deportivo
- Nov 29, 2026AlcantarillavsBalsicas Atlético
- Nov 29, 2026Unión MolinensevsLos Garres
- Nov 29, 2026Águilas IIvsCartagena LU II
- Nov 29, 2026Santa CruzvsAlgar