Elche vs Celta Vigo: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche
The Footlab AI model makes Elche the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Celta Vigo. The most likely score is 1-1. If Elche wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Elche vs Celta Vigo?
A very open match: only 51 Elo points separate Elche (1,979) and Celta Vigo (2,030).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Elche vs Celta Vigo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Elche
4-3-3- 11Germán Valera
- 14Fer Niño
- 21L. Cepeda
- 12Gonzalo Villar
- 47J. Morcillo
- 20Tete Morente
- 23Víctor Chust
- 2Buba Sangaré
- 5F. Redondo
- 3R. Revivo
- 1M. Dituro
Celta Vigo
3-4-3- 9Ferran Jutglà
- 16Hugo González
- 19W. Swedberg
- 8Miguel Román
- 6I. Moriba
- 17Javi Rueda
- 23Hugo Álvarez
- 18Yoel Lago
- 15Álvaro Núñez
- 21S. Cáceres
- 13I. Radu
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 07:25 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Elche have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Celta Vigo have 4, 8 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Espanyol(away) | 3-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Real Madrid(home) | 2-3 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 2-3 | La Liga |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 2-3 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Racing Santander(home) | 5-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Omonia Nicosia(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Malaga(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Getafe(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Real Sociedad(away) | 0-0 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Elche wins, 0 draws, 4 Celta Vigo wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Celta Vigo 3-1 Elche | La Liga |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Elche 2-1 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| Apr 26, 2023 | Celta Vigo 1-0 Elche | La Liga |
| Jan 6, 2023 | Elche 0-1 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| May 15, 2022 | Celta Vigo 1-0 Elche | La Liga |
| Oct 3, 2021 | Elche 1-0 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Elche score 1.5 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Celta Vigo score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1 | 13/15 | 10/15 |
| Celta Vigo | 1.3 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Elche sit 18th in La Liga (5 points from 7 matches) and Celta Vigo sit 14th (7 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Celta Vigo | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 7 |
| 18 | Elche | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 5 |
A question about Elche vs Celta Vigo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Elche vs Celta Vigo?
- The Footlab AI model makes Elche the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Celta Vigo.
- Where and when is Elche vs Celta Vigo played?
- Elche vs Celta Vigo is played on October 11, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.