Malaga vs Espanyol: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 9, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Rosaleda, Málaga
The Footlab AI model makes Malaga the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Espanyol. The most likely score is 1-1. If Malaga wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Malaga vs Espanyol?
A very open match: only 4 Elo points separate Malaga (1,964) and Espanyol (1,960).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Malaga vs Espanyol
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Malaga
4-1-4-1- 9Chupe
- 10David Larrubia
- 8Carlos Dotor
- 22Dani Lorenzo
- 11Joaquín Muñoz
- 23Izan Merino
- 15Ángel Recio
- 31Rafita
- 4Einar Galilea
- 3Puga
- 1Alfonso Herrero
Known absences
A. OchoaOut · Knee injury
José SalinasOut · Loan agreement- Julen LobeteOut · Knee injury
- Diego MurilloDoubtful · Knee injury
J. CajusteDoubtful · Injured
M. DiarraDoubtful · Calf injury
Espanyol
4-2-3-1- 9Roberto Fernández
- 28Javier Hernandez
- 4Urko González
- 8Edu Expósito
- 22Álex Calatrava
- 24T. Dolan
- 21Roger Hinojo
- 6L. Cabrera
- 23O. El Hilali
- 14Unai Núñez
- 13M. Dmitrović
Known absences
- Javi PuadoOut · Knee injury
- Kike GarcíaOut · Hamstring injury
- Jofre CarrerasDoubtful · Groin injury
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 07:47 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Malaga have 2 wins, 8 draws and 5 defeats; Espanyol have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Getafe(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 1-3 | La Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Celta Vigo(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Levante(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Real Madrid(away) | 0-4 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Elche(home) | 1-3 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Osasuna(away) | 2-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Sevilla(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Real Sociedad(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Malaga wins, 0 draws, 6 Espanyol wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2021 | Espanyol 3-0 Malaga | Segunda División |
| Nov 2, 2020 | Malaga 0-3 Espanyol | Segunda División |
| Sep 2, 2020 | Espanyol 3-0 Malaga | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 13, 2018 | Espanyol 4-1 Malaga | La Liga |
| Jan 8, 2018 | Malaga 0-1 Espanyol | La Liga |
| Feb 4, 2017 | Malaga 0-1 Espanyol | La Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Malaga score 1.2 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Espanyol score 1.8 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Espanyol | 1.8 | 1.4 | 4 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Malaga sit 20th in La Liga (3 points from 7 matches) and Espanyol sit 15th (7 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Espanyol | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 7 |
| 20 | Malaga | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 3 |
A question about Malaga vs Espanyol?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Malaga vs Espanyol?
- The Footlab AI model makes Malaga the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Espanyol.
- Where and when is Malaga vs Espanyol played?
- Malaga vs Espanyol is played on October 9, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Rosaleda, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.