Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid
The Footlab AI model makes Rayo Vallecano the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Athletic Club. The most likely score is 1-1. If Rayo Vallecano wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club?
A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate Rayo Vallecano (2,037) and Athletic Club (2,024).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Rayo Vallecano
4-3-3- 10Sergio Camello
- 18Álvaro García
- 19Jorge de Frutos
- 8Unai López
- 6P. Ciss
- 23Óscar Valentín
- 24F. Lejeune
- 2A. Rațiu
- 17Adrià Pedrosa
- 15Mujaid Sadick
- 25E. Audero
Known absences
A. BatallaOut · Fracture
I. BalliuDoubtful · Ankle injury
Luiz FelipeDoubtful · Hamstring injury
Athletic Club
4-2-3-1- 9I. Williams
- 8Oihan Sancet
- 16Ruíz de Galarreta
- 23Robert Navarro
- 24Beñat Gerenabarrena
- 18Mikel Jauregizar
- 17Yuri
- 14Aymeric Laporte
- 12Jesús Areso
- 4Aitor Paredes
- 1Unai Simón
Known absences
Nico WilliamsOut · Thigh injury- Unai EguíluzOut · Knee injury
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 11:42 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rayo Vallecano have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Athletic Club have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Osasuna(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Real Madrid(away) | 1-4 | La Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Racing Santander(home) | 3-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 2-5 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Alaves(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Elche(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 3-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Celta Vigo(away) | 2-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 0-2 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Rayo Vallecano wins, 1 draw, 5 Athletic Club wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Athletic Club 1-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Athletic Club 3-1 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Rayo Vallecano 1-2 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| May 25, 2024 | Rayo Vallecano 0-1 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Dec 2, 2023 | Athletic Club 4-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club on Feb 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Rayo Vallecano score 1.4 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Athletic Club score 2.2 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| Athletic Club | 2.2 | 1.0 | 8 | 5/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rayo Vallecano sit 12th in La Liga (8 points from 7 matches) and Athletic Club sit 10th (8 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 8 |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | 8 |
A question about Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club?
- The Footlab AI model makes Rayo Vallecano the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Athletic Club.
- Where and when is Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club played?
- Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club is played on October 10, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Vallecas, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.