Alaves vs Atletico Madrid: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 02:15 PM (UTC)Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
The Footlab AI model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Alaves. The most likely score is 1-1. If Atletico Madrid wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid starts as the favourite with a 175-point Elo edge (2,191 vs 2,016).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Alaves vs Atletico Madrid
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Alaves
5-3-2- 15L. Boyé
- 9M. Díaz
- 19Pablo Ibáñez
- 8Antonio Blanco
- 4Denis Suárez
- 14N. Tenaglia
- 21A. Rebbach
- 17Jonny
- 7Angel Pérez
- 2N. Valentini
- 1Sivera
Known absences
F. GarcésOut · Suspended
Mikel RodríguezOut · Ankle injury
V. KoskiOut · Muscle injury
Atletico Madrid
4-4-2- 7Lee Kang-In
- 11A. Lookman
- 10Álex Baena
- 20G. Simeone
- 5J. Cardoso
- 6Koke
- 14Marcos Llorente
- 22Álex Grimaldo
- 21C. Romero
- 17D. Hancko
- 13J. Oblak
Known absences
A. SørlothDoubtful · Muscle injury
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 11:23 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alaves have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Atletico Madrid have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Valencia(home) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Osasuna(home) | 5-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Real Madrid(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Osasuna(home) | 4-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Real Sociedad(away) | 3-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 0-3 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Alaves win, 2 draws, 3 Atletico Madrid wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | Atletico Madrid 1-0 Alaves | La Liga |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Alaves 1-1 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| May 3, 2025 | Alaves 0-0 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Atletico Madrid 2-1 Alaves | La Liga |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Alaves 2-0 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Oct 29, 2023 | Atletico Madrid 2-1 Alaves | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Atletico Madrid vs Alaves on Jan 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Alaves score 1.4 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico Madrid score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | 1.4 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Atletico Madrid | 1.9 | 1.5 | 4 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alaves sit 6th in La Liga (11 points from 7 matches) and Atletico Madrid sit 2nd (16 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 16 |
| 6 | Alaves | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 11 |
A question about Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
- The Footlab AI model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Alaves.
- Where and when is Alaves vs Atletico Madrid played?
- Alaves vs Atletico Madrid is played on October 10, 2026 at 02:15 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Mendizorroza, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.