Emelec vs Manta FC: prediction and stats
Liga ProRegular Season - 29Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio George Capwell, Guayaquil
The Footlab model makes Emelec the favourite at 56%, against 26% for a draw and 18% for Manta FC. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Emelec vs Manta FC?
Emelec starts as the favourite with a 122-point Elo edge (1,696 vs 1,574).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Emelec have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Manta FC have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | LDU de Quito(away) | 0-2 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Tecnico Universitario(home) | 2-1 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Guayaquil City FC(away) | 0-0 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Aucas(home) | 0-2 | Liga Pro |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Deportivo Cuenca(away) | 1-2 | Liga Pro |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Universidad Catolica(away) | 1-5 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Leones del Norte(home) | 0-2 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Deportivo Cuenca(away) | 2-1 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Mushuc Runa SC(home) | 1-2 | Liga Pro |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Independiente del Valle(away) | 0-1 | Copa Ecuador |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Emelec win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Manta FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Manta FC 0-0 Emelec | Liga Pro |
| Jul 26, 2025 | Manta FC 2-4 Emelec | Liga Pro |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Emelec 1-1 Manta FC | Liga Pro |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Emelec 2-2 Manta FC | Friendlies Clubs |
| Nov 28, 2021 | Emelec 4-0 Manta FC | Liga Pro |
| Jul 18, 2021 | Manta FC 0-4 Emelec | Liga Pro |
How many goals should we expect?
Emelec score 0.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Manta FC score 0.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emelec | 0.8 | 1.1 | 7 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
| Manta FC | 0.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Emelec sit 13th in Liga Pro (29 points from 26 matches) and Manta FC sit 16th (17 points from 26 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Emelec | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 21 | 31 | 29 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 12 | 37 | 17 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Emelec vs Manta FC?
- The Footlab model makes Emelec the favourite at 56%, against 26% for a draw and 18% for Manta FC.
- Where and when is Emelec vs Manta FC played?
- Emelec vs Manta FC is played on September 6, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio George Capwell, in the Liga Pro.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.