Mushuc Runa SC vs Leones del Norte: prediction and stats
Liga ProRegular Season - 29Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Cooperativa de Ahorro y Crédito Mushuc Runa, Ambato
The Footlab model makes Mushuc Runa SC the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Leones del Norte. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mushuc Runa SC vs Leones del Norte?
A very open match: only 19 Elo points separate Mushuc Runa SC (1,696) and Leones del Norte (1,715).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mushuc Runa SC have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Leones del Norte have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Deportivo Cuenca(away) | 0-0 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Barcelona SC(home) | 0-0 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Tecnico Universitario(away) | 3-0 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Manta FC(away) | 2-1 | Liga Pro |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Libertad(home) | 0-2 | Liga Pro |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Independiente del Valle(home) | 2-3 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Manta FC(away) | 2-0 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Aucas(away) | 0-3 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Barcelona SC(home) | 1-1 | Liga Pro |
| Jul 30, 2026 | LDU de Quito(away) | 0-6 | Copa Ecuador |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Mushuc Runa SC win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Leones del Norte win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Leones del Norte 3-1 Mushuc Runa SC | Liga Pro |
| Jul 21, 2024 | Leones del Norte 0-0 Mushuc Runa SC | Copa Ecuador |
Last archived meeting: Leones del Norte vs Mushuc Runa SC on May 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mushuc Runa SC score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Leones del Norte score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mushuc Runa SC | 1.1 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Leones del Norte | 1.3 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mushuc Runa SC sit 9th in Liga Pro (33 points from 26 matches) and Leones del Norte sit 8th (35 points from 26 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 28 | 28 | 35 |
| 9 | Mushuc Runa SC | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 32 | 34 | 33 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mushuc Runa SC vs Leones del Norte?
- The Footlab model makes Mushuc Runa SC the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Leones del Norte.
- Where and when is Mushuc Runa SC vs Leones del Norte played?
- Mushuc Runa SC vs Leones del Norte is played on September 6, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Cooperativa de Ahorro y Crédito Mushuc Runa, in the Liga Pro.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.