Erzgebirge Aue vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt: prediction and stats
Regionalliga - NordostNordost - 27Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Erzgebirgsstadion, Aue
The Footlab model makes FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Erzgebirge Aue. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Erzgebirge Aue vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt?
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt starts as the favourite with a 181-point Elo edge (2,021 vs 1,840).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Erzgebirge Aue have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Hertha BSC II(home) | 0-0 | Regionalliga - Nordost |
| Aug 22, 2026 | 1899 Hoffenheim(home) | 0-4 | DFB Pokal |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Chemnitzer FC(away) | 1-3 | Regionalliga - Nordost |
| Aug 9, 2026 | BFC Preussen(home) | 2-1 | Regionalliga - Nordost |
| Aug 6, 2026 | BFC Dynamo(home) | 3-2 | Regionalliga - Nordost |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Luckenwalde(away) | 5-0 | Regionalliga - Nordost |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Magdeburg II(home) | 4-1 | Regionalliga - Nordost |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Carl Zeiss Jena(away) | 2-1 | Regionalliga - Nordost |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Tasmania Berlin(home) | 6-0 | Regionalliga - Nordost |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Hallescher FC(away) | 1-1 | Regionalliga - Nordost |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Erzgebirge Aue win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2016 | Erzgebirge Aue 2-2 FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt | 3. Liga |
| Sep 12, 2015 | FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 0-1 Erzgebirge Aue | 3. Liga |
Last archived meeting: Erzgebirge Aue vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt on Feb 28, 2016
How many goals should we expect?
Erzgebirge Aue score 2.4 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt score 2.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge Aue | 2.4 | 1.7 | 5 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt | 2.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Erzgebirge Aue sit 5th in Regionalliga - Nordost (10 points from 5 matches) and FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt sit 1st (16 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | Erzgebirge Aue | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Erzgebirge Aue vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt?
- The Footlab model makes FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Erzgebirge Aue.
- Where and when is Erzgebirge Aue vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt played?
- Erzgebirge Aue vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt is played on April 4, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Erzgebirgsstadion, in the Regionalliga - Nordost.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Apr 4, 2027Hallescher FCvsFSV Zwickau
- Apr 4, 2027Chemnitzer FCvsBSG Chemie Leipzig
- Apr 4, 2027Hertha BSC IIvsSV Babelsberg 03
- Apr 4, 2027Lokomotive LeipzigvsFC Carl Zeiss Jena
- Apr 4, 2027LuckenwaldevsGreifswalder FC
- Apr 4, 2027Tasmania BerlinvsBFC Preussen
- Apr 4, 2027RSV EintrachtvsAltglienicke
- Apr 4, 2027Magdeburg IIvsBFC Dynamo