Where and when is Erzgebirge Aue vs Luckenwalde played?

Erzgebirge Aue vs Luckenwalde is played on September 13, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Erzgebirgsstadion, in the Regionalliga - Nordost.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Erzgebirge Aue vs Luckenwalde: prediction and stats

Regionalliga - NordostNordost - 8Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Erzgebirgsstadion, Aue

Erzgebirge Aue

Luckenwalde

The Footlab model makes Erzgebirge Aue the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Luckenwalde. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Erzgebirge Aue vs Luckenwalde?

A very open match: only 55 Elo points separate Erzgebirge Aue (1,833) and Luckenwalde (1,778).

Erzgebirge Aue win48 %

Draw25 %

Luckenwalde win27 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Erzgebirge Aue have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Luckenwalde have 3, 5 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Erzgebirge Aue
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	1899 Hoffenheim(home)	0-4	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Chemnitzer FC(away)	1-3	Regionalliga - Nordost
Aug 9, 2026	BFC Preussen(home)	2-1	Regionalliga - Nordost
Aug 6, 2026	BFC Dynamo(home)	3-2	Regionalliga - Nordost
Jul 31, 2026	Tasmania Berlin(away)	2-0	Regionalliga - Nordost

Luckenwalde
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 14, 2026	FSV Zwickau(away)	1-2	Regionalliga - Nordost
Aug 8, 2026	Tasmania Berlin(home)	1-2	Regionalliga - Nordost
Aug 4, 2026	Magdeburg II(away)	1-0	Regionalliga - Nordost
Aug 1, 2026	RSV Eintracht(away)	0-3	Regionalliga - Nordost
Jul 24, 2026	Lokomotive Leipzig(home)	1-3	Regionalliga - Nordost

How many goals should we expect?

Erzgebirge Aue score 2.5 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Luckenwalde score 0.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Erzgebirge Aue	2.5	1.8	4	10/15	12/15
Luckenwalde	0.9	1.4	3	9/15	6/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Erzgebirge Aue sit 5th in Regionalliga - Nordost (10 points from 5 matches) and Luckenwalde sit 15th (3 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
5	Erzgebirge Aue	5	3	1	1	11	9	10
15	Luckenwalde	5	1	0	4	5	11	3

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Erzgebirge Aue vs Luckenwalde?: The Footlab model makes Erzgebirge Aue the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Luckenwalde.
Where and when is Erzgebirge Aue vs Luckenwalde played?: Erzgebirge Aue vs Luckenwalde is played on September 13, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Erzgebirgsstadion, in the Regionalliga - Nordost.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.