ES Tunis vs ES Hammam-Sousse: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 9Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Stade olympique Hammadi-Agrebi, Radès
The Footlab model makes ES Tunis the favourite at 64%, against 25% for a draw and 11% for ES Hammam-Sousse. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win ES Tunis vs ES Hammam-Sousse?
ES Tunis is a heavy favourite: 2,077 Elo points against 1,732 — a 344-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, ES Tunis have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; ES Hammam-Sousse have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | ES Sahel(home) | 3-2 | Ligue 1 |
| May 31, 2026 | ES Zarzis(away) | 1-0 | Cup |
| May 24, 2026 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane(away) | 1-0 | Cup |
| May 21, 2026 | BS Bouhajla(away) | 3-0 | Cup |
| May 17, 2026 | ES Metlaoui(away) | 3-1 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | US Monastirienne(home) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 29, 2026 | Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer(home) | 2-3 | Ligue 2 |
| May 11, 2026 | CS Hammam-Lif(away) | 1-1 | Ligue 2 |
| May 1, 2026 | Sfax Railways(home) | 2-2 | Ligue 2 |
| Apr 27, 2026 | Kerkennah(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 ES Tunis win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 ES Hammam-Sousse win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2023 | ES Tunis 2-0 ES Hammam-Sousse | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 9, 2022 | ES Hammam-Sousse 0-0 ES Tunis | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 2, 2022 | ES Tunis 0-0 ES Hammam-Sousse | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 25, 2021 | ES Hammam-Sousse 0-1 ES Tunis | Ligue 1 |
| Jun 29, 2012 | ES Tunis 7-0 ES Hammam-Sousse | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 4, 2012 | ES Hammam-Sousse 0-2 ES Tunis | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: ES Tunis vs ES Hammam-Sousse on Feb 8, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
ES Tunis score 1.4 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; ES Hammam-Sousse score 1.7 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES Tunis | 1.4 | 0.6 | 8 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
| ES Hammam-Sousse | 1.7 | 0.7 | 9 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
ES Tunis sit 4th in Ligue 1 (3 points from 1 matches) and ES Hammam-Sousse sit 7th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | ES Tunis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | ES Hammam-Sousse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for ES Tunis vs ES Hammam-Sousse?
- The Footlab model makes ES Tunis the favourite at 64%, against 25% for a draw and 11% for ES Hammam-Sousse.
- Where and when is ES Tunis vs ES Hammam-Sousse played?
- ES Tunis vs ES Hammam-Sousse is played on November 28, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Stade olympique Hammadi-Agrebi, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.