Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stage Front Stadium, Cornella de Llobregat
The Footlab model makes Espanyol the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Atletico Madrid. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid starts as the favourite with a 207-point Elo edge (2,246 vs 2,039).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Espanyol have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Atletico Madrid have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Real Madrid(home) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Levante(home) | 3-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Coventry(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Middlesbrough(away) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 2-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Malaga(home) | 2-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Marseille(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Manchester City(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Espanyol win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 Atletico Madrid win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Atletico Madrid 4-2 Espanyol | La Liga |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Espanyol 2-1 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Espanyol 1-1 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Aug 28, 2024 | Atletico Madrid 0-0 Espanyol | La Liga |
| May 24, 2023 | Espanyol 3-3 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Nov 6, 2022 | Atletico Madrid 1-1 Espanyol | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Atletico Madrid vs Espanyol on Feb 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Espanyol score 1.6 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico Madrid score 1.6 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | 1.6 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Atletico Madrid | 1.6 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Espanyol sit 5th in La Liga (3 points from 2 matches) and Atletico Madrid sit 3rd (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | Espanyol | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid?
- The Footlab model makes Espanyol the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Atletico Madrid.
- Where and when is Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid played?
- Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid is played on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stage Front Stadium, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.