Valencia vs Athletic Club: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia
The Footlab model makes Valencia the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Athletic Club. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Valencia vs Athletic Club?
A very open match: only 46 Elo points separate Valencia (2,099) and Athletic Club (2,053).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Valencia have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Athletic Club have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Celta Vigo(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newcastle(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stoke City(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Derby(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Castellón(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sevilla(home) | 1-3 | La Liga |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Zaragoza(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Atalanta(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Marseille(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Burgos(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Valencia win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Athletic Club win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Athletic Club 0-1 Valencia | La Liga |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Valencia 1-2 Athletic Club | Copa del Rey |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Valencia 2-0 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| May 18, 2025 | Valencia 0-1 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Aug 28, 2024 | Athletic Club 1-0 Valencia | La Liga |
| Jan 20, 2024 | Valencia 1-0 Athletic Club | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Athletic Club vs Valencia on May 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Valencia score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Athletic Club score 2.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 1.4 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Athletic Club | 2.3 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Valencia sit 11th in La Liga (1 points from 1 matches) and Athletic Club sit 18th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Valencia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Athletic Club | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Valencia vs Athletic Club?
- The Footlab model makes Valencia the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Athletic Club.
- Where and when is Valencia vs Athletic Club played?
- Valencia vs Athletic Club is played on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Mestalla, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.