Real Madrid vs Sevilla: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
The Footlab AI model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 73%, against 17% for a draw and 10% for Sevilla. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
Real Madrid starts as the favourite with a 281-point Elo edge (2,278 vs 1,997).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Real Madrid vs Sevilla
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Real Madrid
4-2-3-1- 10Kylian Mbappé
- 7Vinícius Júnior
- 8F. Valverde
- 5J. Bellingham
- 15A. Güler
- 14A. Tchouaméni
- 16I. Konaté
- 4D. Huijsen
- 17Marc Cucurella
- 24D. Dumfries
- 1T. Courtois
Sevilla
4-2-3-1- 9R. Ure
- 6L. Agoumé
- 24Y. Fofana
- 20Félix Correia
- 18Jon Guridi
- 8G. Kochorashvili
- 5Andrés Castrín
- 17G. Suazo
- 2Juan Iglesias
- 4Kike Salas
- 1O. Vlachodimos
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 01:53 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Madrid have 12 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats; Sevilla have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Elche(away) | 3-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(home) | 4-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Inter(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Real Betis(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Barcelona(home) | 1-3 | La Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(away) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Valencia(home) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Espanyol(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Real Madrid wins, 1 draw, 0 Sevilla wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Sevilla 0-1 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Real Madrid 2-0 Sevilla | La Liga |
| May 18, 2025 | Sevilla 0-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Real Madrid 4-2 Sevilla | La Liga |
| Feb 25, 2024 | Real Madrid 1-0 Sevilla | La Liga |
| Oct 21, 2023 | Sevilla 1-1 Real Madrid | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Sevilla vs Real Madrid on May 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Real Madrid score 2.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Sevilla score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 2.5 | 1.0 | 4 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Sevilla | 1.1 | 1.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Real Madrid sit 4th in La Liga (15 points from 7 matches) and Sevilla sit 5th (13 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 8 | 15 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 13 |
A question about Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
- The Footlab AI model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 73%, against 17% for a draw and 10% for Sevilla.
- Where and when is Real Madrid vs Sevilla played?
- Real Madrid vs Sevilla is played on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.