Real Madrid vs Sevilla: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
The Footlab model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 71%, against 19% for a draw and 10% for Sevilla. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
Real Madrid starts as the favourite with a 284-point Elo edge (2,339 vs 2,055).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Madrid have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Sevilla have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Espanyol(away) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Schalke 04(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ferencvarosi TC(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Fiorentina(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 3-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Utrecht(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Real Madrid win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Sevilla win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Sevilla 0-1 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Real Madrid 2-0 Sevilla | La Liga |
| May 18, 2025 | Sevilla 0-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Real Madrid 4-2 Sevilla | La Liga |
| Feb 25, 2024 | Real Madrid 1-0 Sevilla | La Liga |
| Oct 21, 2023 | Sevilla 1-1 Real Madrid | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Sevilla vs Real Madrid on May 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Real Madrid score 2.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Sevilla score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 2.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Sevilla | 1.2 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Real Madrid sit 6th in La Liga (3 points from 1 matches) and Sevilla sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sevilla | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
- The Footlab model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 71%, against 19% for a draw and 10% for Sevilla.
- Where and when is Real Madrid vs Sevilla played?
- Real Madrid vs Sevilla is played on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.