Celta Vigo vs Alaves: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo
The Footlab AI model makes Celta Vigo the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Alaves. The most likely score is 1-1. If Celta Vigo wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate Celta Vigo (2,030) and Alaves (2,016).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Celta Vigo vs Alaves
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Celta Vigo
3-4-3- 9Ferran Jutglà
- 16Hugo González
- 19W. Swedberg
- 8Miguel Román
- 6I. Moriba
- 17Javi Rueda
- 23Hugo Álvarez
- 18Yoel Lago
- 15Álvaro Núñez
- 21S. Cáceres
- 13I. Radu
Alaves
5-3-2- 15L. Boyé
- 9M. Díaz
- 19Pablo Ibáñez
- 8Antonio Blanco
- 4Denis Suárez
- 14N. Tenaglia
- 16V. Koski
- 21A. Rebbach
- 17Jonny
- 7Angel Pérez
- 1Sivera
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:53 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Celta Vigo have 4 wins, 8 draws and 3 defeats; Alaves have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Racing Santander(home) | 5-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Omonia Nicosia(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Malaga(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Getafe(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Real Sociedad(away) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Valencia(home) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Osasuna(home) | 5-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 1-0 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Celta Vigo wins, 2 draws, 2 Alaves wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Celta Vigo 3-4 Alaves | La Liga |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Alaves 0-1 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| Jan 27, 2025 | Alaves 1-1 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| Aug 16, 2024 | Celta Vigo 2-1 Alaves | La Liga |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Alaves 3-0 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| Sep 28, 2023 | Celta Vigo 1-1 Alaves | La Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Celta Vigo score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Alaves score 1.4 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | 1.3 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Alaves | 1.4 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Celta Vigo sit 14th in La Liga (7 points from 7 matches) and Alaves sit 6th (11 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Alaves | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 11 |
| 14 | Celta Vigo | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 7 |
A question about Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
- The Footlab AI model makes Celta Vigo the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Alaves.
- Where and when is Celta Vigo vs Alaves played?
- Celta Vigo vs Alaves is played on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.