Celta Vigo vs Alaves: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo
The Footlab model makes Celta Vigo the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Alaves. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
A very open match: only 44 Elo points separate Celta Vigo (2,119) and Alaves (2,075).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Celta Vigo have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Alaves have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Valencia(away) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Napoli(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Sassuolo(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Sporting Gijon(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Getafe(home) | 3-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Castellón(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Girona(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Celta Vigo win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Alaves win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Celta Vigo 3-4 Alaves | La Liga |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Alaves 0-1 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| Jan 27, 2025 | Alaves 1-1 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| Aug 16, 2024 | Celta Vigo 2-1 Alaves | La Liga |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Alaves 3-0 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| Sep 28, 2023 | Celta Vigo 1-1 Alaves | La Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Celta Vigo score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Alaves score 1.6 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Alaves | 1.6 | 1.2 | 5 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Celta Vigo sit 12th in La Liga (1 points from 1 matches) and Alaves sit 2nd (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Alaves | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
- The Footlab model makes Celta Vigo the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Alaves.
- Where and when is Celta Vigo vs Alaves played?
- Celta Vigo vs Alaves is played on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.