Malaga vs Real Sociedad: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Rosaleda, Málaga
The Footlab AI model makes Malaga the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Real Sociedad. The most likely score is 1-1. If Malaga wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Malaga vs Real Sociedad?
A very open match: only 71 Elo points separate Malaga (1,964) and Real Sociedad (2,034).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Malaga vs Real Sociedad
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Malaga
4-1-4-1- 9Chupe
- 10David Larrubia
- 8Carlos Dotor
- 22Dani Lorenzo
- 11Joaquín Muñoz
- 23Izan Merino
- 15Ángel Recio
- 12José Salinas
- 31Rafita
- 4Einar Galilea
- 1Alfonso Herrero
Real Sociedad
4-4-2- 10Mikel Oyarzabal
- 24L. Sučić
- 18Carlos Soler
- 11Gonçalo Guedes
- 21Y. Herrera
- 12J. Ochieng
- 17Sergio Gómez
- 2J. Aramburu
- 34Luken Beitia
- 6Jon Martín
- 1Álex Remiro
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:54 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Malaga have 2 wins, 8 draws and 5 defeats; Real Sociedad have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Getafe(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 1-3 | La Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Celta Vigo(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Levante(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Real Madrid(away) | 0-4 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Valencia(away) | 3-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Bournemouth(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 0-3 | La Liga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Elche(away) | 3-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Celta Vigo(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Malaga wins, 2 draws, 2 Real Sociedad wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2024 | Malaga 0-1 Real Sociedad | Copa del Rey |
| Apr 22, 2018 | Malaga 2-0 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Dec 10, 2017 | Real Sociedad 0-2 Malaga | La Liga |
| May 14, 2017 | Real Sociedad 2-2 Malaga | La Liga |
| Jan 16, 2017 | Malaga 0-2 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Feb 27, 2016 | Real Sociedad 1-1 Malaga | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Malaga vs Real Sociedad on Jan 7, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Malaga score 1.2 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Real Sociedad score 1.4 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Real Sociedad | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Malaga sit 20th in La Liga (3 points from 7 matches) and Real Sociedad sit 8th (10 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Real Sociedad | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 10 |
| 20 | Malaga | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 3 |
A question about Malaga vs Real Sociedad?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Malaga vs Real Sociedad?
- The Footlab AI model makes Malaga the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Real Sociedad.
- Where and when is Malaga vs Real Sociedad played?
- Malaga vs Real Sociedad is played on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Rosaleda, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.