Match

Estepona vs Marbella: prediction and stats

Segunda División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 19Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Francisco Muñoz Pérez, Estepona

EsteponaMarbella

The Footlab AI model makes Estepona the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for Marbella. The most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,761 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Estepona vs Marbella?

Estepona starts as the favourite with a 143-point Elo edge (1,942 vs 1,799).

58%25%17%
Estepona winDrawMarbella win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Estepona vs Marbella

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Estepona

4-3-3
  1. 20Daniel Sancho
  2. 10Ale Conteras
  3. 16D. Ballarin
  1. 15Javi Duarte
  2. 6J. Aguilera
  3. 17S. Baradji
  1. 26A. Gonzalez
  2. 3A. Candelas
  3. 5Titi Fernández
  4. 22José Caro
  1. 1J. Ruiz

Marbella

4-3-3
  1. 20J. Cambra
  2. 17Alexiel
  3. 19E. Ohemeng
  1. 8Eugeni Valderrama
  2. 16A. Ruiz
  3. 10A. Gil
  1. 22J. Rodriguez
  2. 23Alberto Escassi
  3. 2J. Alvarez
  4. 3Álex Martínez
  1. 1Manu García

Computed on October 18, 2026 at 02:03 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Estepona have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Marbella have 3, 2 and 10.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Estepona
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Atlético Central(home)3-2Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Oct 3, 2026Don Benito(home)3-1Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Sep 27, 2026Tenerife II(away)1-2Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Sep 19, 2026Puente Genil(away)2-0Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Sep 12, 2026Linares Deportivo(home)1-4Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Marbella
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Badajoz(away)0-1Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Oct 4, 2026Real Betis II(home)0-2Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Sep 27, 2026Puente Genil(away)0-0Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Sep 20, 2026Atlético Central(home)4-1Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Sep 13, 2026Sevilla Atletico(away)0-3Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Estepona wins, 1 draw, 1 Marbella win.

DateScoreCompetition
Feb 4, 2024Marbella 0-0 EsteponaSegunda División RFEF - Group 4
Sep 24, 2023Estepona 0-1 MarbellaSegunda División RFEF - Group 4

Last archived meeting: Marbella vs Estepona on Feb 4, 2024

How many goals should we expect?

Estepona score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Marbella score 1.2 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Estepona1.81.3312/159/15
Marbella1.21.926/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Estepona sit 7th in Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 (10 points from 6 matches) and Marbella sit 15th (5 points from 6 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
7Estepona631210910
15Marbella6123695

A question about Estepona vs Marbella?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Estepona vs Marbella?
The Footlab AI model makes Estepona the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for Marbella.
Where and when is Estepona vs Marbella played?
Estepona vs Marbella is played on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Francisco Muñoz Pérez, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 4.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Estepona and Marbella

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