Sudan vs Ethiopia: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 1Kick-off on September 23, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya, Nouakchott
The Footlab model makes Sudan the favourite at 49%, against 29% for a draw and 22% for Ethiopia. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sudan vs Ethiopia?
A very open match: only 77 Elo points separate Sudan (1,476) and Ethiopia (1,399).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sudan have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Ethiopia have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | Senegal(away) | 1-3 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Burkina Faso(home) | 0-2 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Equatorial Guinea(away) | 1-0 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 24, 2025 | Algeria(away) | 0-3 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 9, 2025 | Bahrain(away) | 1-3 | Arab Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Malawi(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Malawi(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Sao Tome and Principe(home) | 1-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Sao Tome and Principe(away) | 3-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Burkina Faso(away) | 1-3 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Sudan win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Ethiopia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 25, 2024 | Sudan 2-1 Ethiopia | African Nations Championship - Qualification |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Ethiopia 0-2 Sudan | African Nations Championship - Qualification |
| Dec 30, 2021 | Sudan 2-3 Ethiopia | Friendlies |
| Aug 17, 2017 | Sudan 1-0 Ethiopia | African Nations Championship |
| Aug 12, 2017 | Ethiopia 1-1 Sudan | African Nations Championship |
| Dec 5, 2015 | Ethiopia 1-1 Sudan | CECAFA Senior Challenge Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Sudan score 0.4 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Ethiopia score 1.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudan | 0.4 | 1.4 | 4 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
| Ethiopia | 1.1 | 1.4 | 4 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sudan sit 2nd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (8 points from 6 matches) and Ethiopia sit 4th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Sudan | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 |
| 4 | Ethiopia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sudan vs Ethiopia?
- The Footlab model makes Sudan the favourite at 49%, against 29% for a draw and 22% for Ethiopia.
- Where and when is Sudan vs Ethiopia played?
- Sudan vs Ethiopia is played on September 23, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.