Sudan vs Ethiopia: result 1-0 and analysis
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationGroup Stage - 1Kick-off on September 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya, Nouakchott
Full time
What was the result of Sudan vs Ethiopia?
Sudan won 1-0 on September 25, 2026.
Goalscorers
- 86′M. EisaSudan
What had the model predicted before the match?
Before kick-off, the Footlab AI model gave a Sudan win at 53%: prediction correct. Most likely score announced: 1-0. Actual score: 1-0.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Official lineup for Sudan vs Ethiopia
The starting elevens fielded at kick-off.
Sudan
4-4-2- 90Musa Hussein Ali
- 91M. Eisa
- 93Abdelrazig Omer
- 92Walieldin Khidir
- 94Ammar Kamaleldin Taifour
- 89Aamir Yunis Abdallah
- 95Bakhit Khamis
- 98Mustafa Karshom
- 97Abdelrahman Ali
- 96S. Barglan
- 99Mohamed Mustafa
Ethiopia
4-4-2- 8Canaan Markneh
- 10A. Yalew
- 19Chernet Gugsa
- 21Habtamu tekeste
- 6Gathuoch Panom
- 9mesfin taffese
- 15samuel bereket
- 16yared bayeh
- 14samuel yohannes
- 4birhanu bekele
- 1Abubeker Ambisa
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sudan have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Ethiopia have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | Senegal(away) | 1-3 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Burkina Faso(home) | 0-2 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Equatorial Guinea(away) | 1-0 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 24, 2025 | Algeria(away) | 0-3 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 9, 2025 | Bahrain(away) | 1-3 | Arab Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Malawi(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Malawi(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Sao Tome and Principe(home) | 1-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Sao Tome and Principe(away) | 3-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Burkina Faso(away) | 1-3 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Sudan wins, 2 draws, 1 Ethiopia win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 25, 2024 | Sudan 2-1 Ethiopia | African Nations Championship - Qualification |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Ethiopia 0-2 Sudan | African Nations Championship - Qualification |
| Dec 30, 2021 | Sudan 2-3 Ethiopia | Friendlies |
| Aug 17, 2017 | Sudan 1-0 Ethiopia | African Nations Championship |
| Aug 12, 2017 | Ethiopia 1-1 Sudan | African Nations Championship |
| Dec 5, 2015 | Ethiopia 1-1 Sudan | CECAFA Senior Challenge Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Sudan score 0.4 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Ethiopia score 1.1 and concede 1.4.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudan | 0.4 | 1.4 | 4 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
| Ethiopia | 1.1 | 1.4 | 4 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sudan sit 3rd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (3 points from 2 matches) and Ethiopia sit 4th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sudan | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 4 | Ethiopia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
A question about Sudan vs Ethiopia?
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy