Aston Villa vs Manchester United: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueMatchday 21Kick-off on January 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Villa Park, Birmingham
The Footlab AI model makes Manchester United the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Aston Villa. The most likely score is 1-1. If Manchester United wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 5,995 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Manchester United?
A very open match: only 68 Elo points separate Aston Villa (2,145) and Manchester United (2,078).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Aston Villa vs Manchester United
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Aston Villa
4-2-3-1- 11N. Jackson
- 8B. Kamara
- 44J. Manzambi
- 7J. McGinn
- 47Alysson Edward
- 27L. Goretzka
- 3V. Lindelöf
- 22I. Maatsen
- 14Pau Torres
- 2M. Cash
- 1Z. Suzuki
Manchester United
4-2-3-1- 19B. Mbeumo
- 16A. Diallo
- 8Bruno Fernandes
- 10Matheus Cunha
- 18Y. Tielemans
- 37K. Mainoo
- 5H. Maguire
- 2Diogo Dalot
- 15L. Yoro
- 3N. Mazraoui
- 1S. Lammens
Computed on November 14, 2026 at 11:24 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aston Villa have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Manchester United have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 4-4 | Premier League |
| Nov 3, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Fulham(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Bournemouth(away) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Manchester City(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 4-4 | Premier League |
| Nov 3, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 3-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Bournemouth(home) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Como(away) | 1-4 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Aston Villa win, 2 draws, 3 Manchester United wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Manchester United 4-4 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Manchester United 3-1 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Aston Villa 2-1 Manchester United | Premier League |
| May 25, 2025 | Manchester United 2-0 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Aston Villa 0-0 Manchester United | Premier League |
| Feb 11, 2024 | Aston Villa 1-2 Manchester United | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Manchester United vs Aston Villa on Nov 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aston Villa score 2.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Manchester United score 1.6 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 2.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Manchester United | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aston Villa sit 10th in Premier League (13 points from 10 matches) and Manchester United sit 18th (8 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Aston Villa | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 17 | 13 |
| 18 | Manchester United | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 19 | 8 |
A question about Aston Villa vs Manchester United?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aston Villa vs Manchester United?
- The Footlab AI model makes Manchester United the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Aston Villa.
- Where and when is Aston Villa vs Manchester United played?
- Aston Villa vs Manchester United is played on January 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Villa Park, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.