Aston Villa vs Manchester United: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 21Kick-off on January 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Villa Park, Birmingham
The Footlab model makes Aston Villa the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Manchester United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Manchester United?
A very open match: only 18 Elo points separate Aston Villa (2,206) and Manchester United (2,224).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aston Villa have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Manchester United have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Brighton(away) | 0-4 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Super Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Bayern München(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | BG Pathum United(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Hull City(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | AC Milan(home) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Aston Villa win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Manchester United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Manchester United 3-1 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Aston Villa 2-1 Manchester United | Premier League |
| May 25, 2025 | Manchester United 2-0 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Aston Villa 0-0 Manchester United | Premier League |
| Feb 11, 2024 | Aston Villa 1-2 Manchester United | Premier League |
| Dec 26, 2023 | Manchester United 3-2 Aston Villa | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Manchester United vs Aston Villa on Mar 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aston Villa score 2.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Manchester United score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 2.0 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 14/15 |
| Manchester United | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aston Villa sit 20th in Premier League (0 points from 1 matches) and Manchester United sit 16th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Manchester United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aston Villa vs Manchester United?
- The Footlab model makes Aston Villa the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Manchester United.
- Where and when is Aston Villa vs Manchester United played?
- Aston Villa vs Manchester United is played on January 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Villa Park, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.